TRIMBROKER (TRIMBROKER)
Markets  |  December 21, 2012 16:43:45

Review the year 2012


iPoint.cz The year 2012 was again volatilným year so as each of the other six years of financial crisis. And it probably will not change even in the coming year 2013. Because, as he said, JP Morgan, let them mean any situation, financial markets will always fluctuate.

And volatile in 2012 even began. On 13th January credit rating agency Standard & Poor's reduced the rating of the nine members of the euro area, with the highest credit rating and maintain Trojáčková flax Germany. As a reason cuts rating agency wrote that politicians' actions that were performed during the past weeks, they are not sufficient to address the systemic tensions in the eurozone.Sadly Agency should truth even if it is during almost the whole of the first half talked about the various crises publisher solutions, the agreement finally looks completely different. For many plans, napákovania eurovalu stood not, Merkel to joint Eurobond margo said that they are not real life for him and long-term ECB resisted pressure to make something d debt crisis were generally made. Luckily markets reduce the ratings ate as a message that it will not be worse and the euro have opened up room for growth in the first months of the year. Overall, shares recorded an excellent start to the year. SP500 index had the strongest since January 1997, the pan-European index DJ Stoxx Europe 600 since 1998.

Euro, as well as to shares in growth also helped februárové LTRO, I mean the second 3-year refinancing operations of the ECB, in which the 800 banks lend up to 529 billion euros. Along with the December operations in a volume of 489 billionThis was the source of euros, which should help the banks in their financing. Even if it was not for the first half difficult months, will eventually be able to knock off higher and European banks in the index DJ Stoxx Europe 600 have this year book-entry profit of about 25%.

Growth of the euro in February, to take effect also on the price of oil, but the best job of it affected the Iranian nuclear program. Tehran is nemienil halt uranium enrichment, which subsequently mienil use for peaceful purposes. Therefore, the European Union has decided that with effect from 1 July suspend imports of oil from that country. Such a measure is the economy in which oil plays a role in all devastating and therefore decided to immediately defend Iran. Month to halt oil exports to the UK and France. Concerns about the lack of black gold drove the price of Brent crude oil up to 130 dolárom per barrel.OPEC of its high production-as well as high production of oil from the U.S. market but will eventually let forget about those concerns, with the downturn also has played its role. In June, brent moved only at 88 USD, and 2012 should close around the level of 110 USD. Defeated in this battle was sure to Iran, where inflation due to economic problems has reached double-digit figures. The winner, of course, were the energy companies. Especially those of America, that the orientation on natural gas and new ways of extracting oil (fracking) have proven even at fairly of falling oil prices increase.

February has been on the market FX market save the euro absorbing growth and in terms of interventions by Japan's central bank. Her most recent forex interventions always failed and so decided to go through agresívneho release of BoJ monetary policy by the inflation targeting.Inflation target has been set at 1% and the central bank has promised that it will intervene so as it deems appropriate in order to achieve this goal. At the beginning of the year was the volume of purchases of assets at 20 trillion. Jenova in November it rose to 66 trillion. Jenova. In mid-month behold this effort failed, but where is the will, there is also the way to go.

March was the stock market in the name of growth. SP500 index recorded for the first three months of the year its strongest since Q1 1998. Underpinning Passed Greek PSI course, I mean participation by the private sector to rescue Greece. Up to 85.8% of holders of debentures has agreed with the team to get for the old debentures issued under the new law of the Greek bonds issued under British law. Flanges on those who disagreed with the PSI was used stipulation CAC, ultimately achieved through participation by 95.7%.The first restructuring of debt in the euro area and ended without major problems. March so I brought a big milestone in the evolution of the crisis. Default.

While European financial institutions shall be enjoyed LTRO, U.S. banks again helped záťažových successful mastery of the tests, after which the Fed allowed the banks to pay dividends and resume share repurchase programs, reversing the market. Up to 15 of the 19 banks tested aptitude test passed. U.S. financial sector has also thanks to these reports for the year attributed profit of 27%. Dividend after a long waiting for it also announced the company Apple. The largest U.S. company by a market capitalization of 15 years and again paid dividends.

April but has already produced correction of recent gains in the stock market. Huge Surprise had brought an FOMC Minutes, where the amazement of the entire market talked about the timing of a possible withdrawal of stimulus.While Bernanke at the press conference after the FOMC end of April, he said that the Fed is ready to further stimuli, confidence in the market has failed to return. For withdrawing optimism was also a decision to revise rating agency Moodys rating of 114 financial institutions from all euro area countries.

After a relatively quiet but come April Bear May. Strata JP Morgan, FAILED Facebook IPO firms and the inability of European politicians to agree on resolving the crisis in Europe. This development be felt in all the financial markets, in a familiar approach risk off. SP500 stock index for May fell by more than 6%, marking the strongest loss since September 2011. In this fall to support markets failed, even for the French elections Merkozy, when the new president became Hollande, the failure of the Greek PASOK and New Democracy government in creating as well as the weak NFPU.S. at the beginning of the month. Steady growth spredov on Italian and Spanish dlhopisoch also supported the Bear camp.

One of najočakávanejších events this year was the IPO of shares of company Facebook, scheduled for 18 May. The company then offered to sell 421 million shares at a price of 38 USD-action, that is the upper limit of the assumed range 34-38 USD. In the first day of trading but these shares, reviewed for the maximum possible price, recorded growth by only 0.5%. Then during May shares lost another 25% and roughly the same even end with a loss this year. Still clogging the market by new shares, remains extremely high valuation and also not very convincing results to shares nepriali. So Facebook IPO ended as najneúspešnejšie from an initially subscribe sized businesses in the U.S. over the last two decades.

In May also took behold bank JP Morgan. Company in publishing the results of their kvartálnych some losses from its London Division, no bank CEO Dimon called this problem as the storm čajovej kettle. A few days later, however, the company announced that the loss of syntetickej derivátovej positions were significantly increased and reached $ 2 billion. Tires of this bank was perceived as one of the safest, these reports have caused great shock in the market and therefore the shares of the Bank in May fell by 25%.

The July of strata rose to 5.6 billion and caused the closure of shops London Division CIO. Trader responsible for this loss, Bruno Iksil London whale, but was not the only merchant, who, caused the banks problems.

27th June got huge fines Barclays Bank in the volume of almost 450 million USD for that manipulated interbank rate LIBOR. Due to your needs is the fixing of rates supplied by manipulated quotes of what he needed. The scandal is still investigated a number of banks, but probably no more than it paid the bank UBS, which for the manipulation of this reference interbank rate fined up to $ 1.5 billion.

Costly for banks came even money laundering. HSBC paid for such operations record fine 1.92 billion, while Standard Chartered fine of 667 million USD.

Altogether month of June was the highly volatile stock market, but ultimately the SP500 index managed to record a growth factor to 4%, thus this year's jun became the most profitable since 1999. For the entire 2Q but the index was down 3.3%. The main impetus to the movement came from the Fed and Europe.Newspaper article in the Wall Street Journal dated 6 June on considering a stimulus Fedo your records as well as representatives of the Fed's comments that incentives are likely to shares helped the rally. The fulfillment of expectations came 20th June, when the FOMC left the rate unchanged and came to the development of the operation twist. Day of shares recorded a strong decline after sell the news reaction, no month ended strongest one-day rally since December following the EU summit at which politicians have agreed on the recapitalization of banks through direct ESM. This decision came after you request the assistance of Spain from the 10th June failed to restore confidence in Spanish bonds, which reached a peak during June to 10-year-old due to 7.3%. June also brought the Greek election that ended Nová victory for democracy and the approval of health care reform, constitutional courts of the U.S..Healthcare segment, after those reports eventually emerged from the narrow band and ended the year 2012 at a profit of 17%.

Júlov trading was marked by relatively good earnings season in the U.S., but the stock markets too moved. But continued to decline in the euro, which from the beginning of the year was fairly strácalo against green bills. Turnover throughout the developing crisis, but come at the end of the month when the ECB Nowotny said he sees the possibility of granting a banking license for the ESM. The market gathered together such as trust management solution to the crisis, but later he said that he himself ECB intervention such method does not prefer. But that was not all. 26th July ECB President Draghi at a conference in London said that the ECB is ready to do anything to save the euro. These words started a rally in the euro, during which the common currency rose from near the surface to 1.20 to 1.32.

This growth but was not simple. At the meeting of August, the ECB Draghi said that the plans to save the euro as communicated in a few weeks. While the euro was at its relatively hesitant Growth, yields on PIIGS countries dlhopisoch rapidly declined.

In July took yet significantly weaker results of Apple, the reduction rates of PBOC and the China agreement between the EU and Spain to rescue the banking sector in the country.

One of the most interesting events in August was certainly casualty company Knight Capital, which belongs to one of the largest Market Maker on NYSE. The company launched the first morning August their new algorithm ecommerce, no system will start to behave unpredictably and has caused a rapid decline in nearly 150 promotions. On this day, the company forfeited shares by 32%.

September was about three udalostiach: QE3 +, OMT and iPhone fifth Notification of a new round of stimulus by the Fed came 13th September, when the FOMC shifted the period during which the rate will remain unchanged for a longer future and also announced time limit the purchases of mortgage securities in a volume of 40 billion USD per month.

6th September zasadala ECB, which kept interest rates at nezmenenej level. The biggest event, but it was the announcement of bond purchases by the ECB under the OMT program, which will be unrestricted and shall relate to debt securities with a maturity of up to 3 years of those countries that request help. After a month of waiting and Draghi fulfill market expectations and came with this huge stimulus. More positively, the euro was also managing ESM statement in accordance with the German Constitution of the German Constitutional Court.

The fact that the ECB will buy bonds, was excellent news for share peripherals and despite the fact that these countries are fighting for every tenth of economic growth. The fact that these countries nezbankrotujú, sent them up significantly, but despite the growth in the second half of this year shares ended Spanish and Italian linen with minimal changes, no Greek shares rose as much as 32%.

September was also a new mobile phone from the workshop Apple iPhone fifth Phone was put into the sale 21st September. In the day's biggest stock company in the world, according to a market capitalization reached its maximum at 701 USD. Sadly shares these high levels due to problems with delivery facility failed to maintain and fell into the end of a quarter.

October was quite challenging for Marketers month to the market still pretriasala question of Greece, and the future of the EU banking Union and macro data from the U.S.. Also expectation that, when requested by Spain for help, improve, market tensions. SP500 index in October, scored your first monthly loss since May, and odpísal to 2.1%.

In October of traders certainly took Sandy hurricane, which had largely affected the economic activity even in the U.S.. Trading activity has affected behold, since due to the hurricane was stopped marketing in the U.S. for up to two days, which was the longest break in trade caused by weather since 1888.

Hurricane and subsequent failure of electricity came to visit Unlike most such shares Reseller generators of electricity. General Holdings shares rose just after Hurricane by nearly 50%.

Influence of the hurricane were novembrové weak macro data, which was reflected also in the stock market. The main impact on trade but had elections in the U.S., which Obama won. Because he was not the preferred candidate of Wall Street, equity markets have responded to the reports negatively. Democratic president and Republican House of Representatives launched a carousel discussions about solutions hroziaceho fiscal cliff, I mean of automatic šktrtov that even to this day has not been resolved, and only caused market tensions.

This culminated in the 21st December, well in predicting the end of the Mayan calendar, the night when forfeited SP500 index futures up 3.2% within minutes.

Year-end was yummy even korporátnom sector. Hewlett-Packard Company at the end of November, said that the company purchase of Autonomy was extremely overpriced and the company has almost the entire purchasing describe and again at the end of December derivátovej Exchange IntercontinntalExchange operator has announced that redemptions operator of stock exchanges in the U.S. as well as Europe, NYSE Euronext. Company was founded only in 2000, and bought by 208-year-old rival.

U.S. policy, not only ovplyvňovala year-end. Europe's politicians to finally agree on the plan, regardless of banks since 2014, Greece received another tranche of aid after sfinalizovaní repurchase program of bonds from the market (These involve essentially the second restructuring of the Greek debt), the Japanese won election opposition, which prefers aggressive monetary stimulus and that helped USDJPY suppress the level 77 to level 85, and alsoThe Fed announced as compensation for the termination of the operation Twist the time-unlimited purchases of federal bonds.

If we were in 2012 should be summarized in one sentence, so just know that the year 2012 was the year, when the end of the world did not occur, no central banks have started to be much more aggressive in its monetary policy. Unlimited bond purchases by the ECB and the Fed and likewise also plan increases monetárnych incentives in Japan to promote the achievement of the inflation rate to 2% this year as a priority movin markets.
Also significant was basically a Greek bankruptcy twice, stood obscurity European politicians in addressing the crisis and revelation to Libor manipulation.

New Year will certainly bring other interesting events, and hope to track them with us.

Author: John Benaki | TRIM Broker, as |Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker


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