Research (Investicniweb.cz)
Czech markets  |  January 04, 2013 05:49:29

Hakan Aksoy: Erste ignore now, I like the Commercial Bank



Turkish stocks have despite 40% boost in 2012 still interesting growth potential. The payment could also bet on the Polish and Czech stock market. On the contrary, Hungary and Ukraine are also better because of the problems in the banking sector avoided, says investment strategist Hakan Aksoy that monitors Central and Eastern Europe for domestic and foreign clients.

Even at the beginning of 2013, the markets feel great uncertainty. What you are going in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) bet?

Hakan Aksoy (HA): I prefer to countries grow economically in spite of everything and have relatively little debt. Growth is opening interesting potential shares. And so it is one of my favorites this year, Turkey. Although not a CEE market in the traditional sense, I think that is a good complement to the portfolio built on Central and Eastern Europe. Indeed, Turkey is less sensitive to developments in the European Union, mainly thanks to the diversified exports. It also can rely on strong domestic demand. In 2012, its economy would be strengthened by 3% this year, even by 4%. In addition, the ratio of debt to GDP is around 40%, while in the euro area is 94%.

Fitch in November Turkey increased rating. If someone else adds, Turkish markets rally experience, promise some analysts in the City of London. Do you agree with them?

HA: Definitely. If S & P or Moody's will also increase investment rating of Turkey, the country will begin to pour more money from abroad, particularly from pension funds. At the moment, Turkey is at Moody's one notch below investment grade and has a positive outlook. I expect, therefore, that in 2013 to increase the score occurs. The only problem - the current account deficit - in fact stabilized. And Turkey is not expensive, since it is now P / E Turkey shares about 10.5. And shares in Turkey last year strengthened by about 40%.

It is Turkey. What do you like within the region of Central and Eastern Europe?

HA: The main problem lies in the CEE breathy growth of the European economy. Region but it is growing faster than the euro area. Therefore, I would definitely representative of Central and Eastern Europe in the European portfolio had.But it is important to keep in mind that the effort to reduce the tax burden threatens the growth of CEE. BIS statistics show that from late 2011 to mid-2012, foreign banks pulled from their Central and Eastern European daughters of € 35 billion, about half of which is accounted for Hungary. The fact is that it seems to German and Austrian banks are trying not to withdraw the region under the water and holds its position, with the exception of that of Hungary.

Hungary therefore disregarded. Which countries in the region, on the contrary you think is worth it?

HA: In terms of equity portfolios, I prefer countries that grow, low debt and have a solid banking sector. In the CEE region would therefore concentrated on Poland, Slovakia and Czech Republic. On the contrary, I would avoid Hungary and Ukraine, have weaker banking sector, which is struggling with a high volume of non-performing loans with a high loan-to-deposit ratio.This is in the case where the continued effort to reduce the debt burden poses a threat. As for Hungary is concerned, other taxes and the possibility that in the case of municipal bonds will have lenders forgive borrowers something, means that the pressure on banks can continue.

What are stock preferences Hakan Aksoye between Central banks can be found on the web Investment

Read also:

European emerging markets outlook for 2013

Central and Eastern Europe

Like the global economy and financial markets, our outlook for emerging Europe region generally positive. Yes, even in this region are countries whose economy is falling, there are countries with near zero interest rates and bond yields at historic lows, but overall offers Eastern Europe's stock markets and attractive investment opportunities.»More


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