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Macroeconomics  |  January 05, 2013 10:17:44

Investment and Economic Trends of 2013



"The necessary government austerity measures in 2013 will lead to a global downturn in the economic environment and preventing resumption of rapid growth," predicts Mostböck Fritz, senior analyst at Erste Group. The unresolved conflict in Syria and politically extreme situation in Egypt could cause at least temporary uncertainty in financial markets and the price of oil weight. In the U.S., the Fed's purchases will lead to the strengthening of consumer confidence and support private consumption. Local economic growth in 2013 should therefore remain stable at 2% in 2014 is expected to acceleration. This should help and exports from the eurozone countries. (Source: Erste Group)

Action by the European Central Bank has improved mood in financial markets. Taking into account the low rise, it may be only a matter of time before the financial markets and the real economy closer to each other again. "With the entry of Croatia into the European Union in July 2013, we expect for the period between 2014 and 2020, further growth of its GDP up by 2.5%, mainly due to access to the common market and EU funding. Further impetus to the European integration process in the Balkans will the fact that it should be given a date to start accession negotiations of Serbia to the EU, "says Mostböck.

Equity optimism

Global equity markets after him in 2013 further. Low valuations and lack of attractive alternatives to support global growth in stock prices.Companies with a high degree of geographic diversification and a wider client base will be better able to generate cash flows.

World stocks

Limited investment in expansion and M & A (mergers and acquisitions) could lead to a significant increase in demand for new issues, and the narrowing of spreads, particularly for enterprises in key economic region. "Investors should avoid investing in telecommunications and networking sectors," recommends Mostböck. "Attractive investment is in our car production in Central and Eastern Europe.Every fourth car built in the European Union will have a designation made ??in CEE. The former Czechoslovakia is with an estimated 2,000,000 cars in 2012, immediately after Germany's second largest car manufacturer in Europe. Automotive production in this region continually gaining new market shares and benefits from its competitive labor costs and a strong presence of German (VW, Skoda) and Asian manufacturers (Kia, Hyundai, Toyota). "

Trends of 2013

Global debt remains a dominant theme. High level of total debt will be reduced immediately, even in the euro area, even beyond. Debt crises of major industrialized countries (the euro area, but also the USA, Japan, the United Kingdom) will be a great challenge for several years. The economic environment remains in this period of relatively fragile.Degradation ratio is strenuous and feasible only in the long term, which in the coming months, subjected to repeated tests both financial markets and the real economy.

Reticent boom, especially in Europe. The past five years have been marked by cyclical weakness. The economic environment is loaded, not least due to the high level of indebtedness of many countries, which makes it more vulnerable in the event of short-term reversals. Necessary state austerity measures will continue to dampen economic environment on the demand side and prevent the return of rapid growth. Slowing growth of the economies of large developing countries such as China or India, this development support.

GDP growth euozóny

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Investiční a ekonomické trendy roku 2013

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