Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  January 07, 2013 11:06:44

Comments to the industry - such as the swing, unpleasant surprise


At the beginning of the year comes an unpleasant surprise. Industrial production in November last year fell significantly stronger than expected. Year on year production volume decreased by 3.9 percent. After taking into account the number of working days has dropped by as much as 6.2 percent, the most since September 2009. Negative are moreover also change statistics of sales, new orders and employment.

Recession affects most electronics industry, whose production has been falling 19 months in a row. In November fell year on year by 10 percent. Another industry is significantly affected by the metallurgical industry. The production of this sector has been declining 12 months in a row. In November, the manufacture of basic metals fell by 11 percent. Surprisingly, production fell dramatically in rubber and plastic (-15.6 percent). Another sector, which contributed to a negative overall result is the production and distribution of electricity, water and gas. Here, reflecting a decrease in production in other sectors, and does not indicate his or extraordinarily warm weather (average temperature in November was 4.9 percent and was 2.2 percent higher than the long-term average). Of the major sectors, the production increased only slightly in the automotive industry (0.3 percent).

The outlook for the next few months unfortunately remains negative. The volume of new orders fell by 2.3 percent, while reducing both domestic and export orders. Purchasing Managers' Index in December dropped to 46 points, the lowest level since July 2009.

Thanks to the favorable developments in the first half of the year should be the last annual decline in industrial production were relatively modest and should be between 0.5 to 1.0 percent. With continued negative developments counting this year.

David Marek, Patria Finance


iPoint.cz Czech industry in recent months on a swing. Compared in November fell by 3.9%. But if the outcome cleaned and in number of working days, the conclusion is even worse (-6.2%). Worse numbers this time manifested in virtually all fields and there is no leader, who could bring the industry to grow.

The key for the industry is the manufacturing sector, particularly automotive and spare parts. This creates an unprecedented level of value. Car production rose by a slight 0.3%. This is an insignificant increase, which does not yet bring growth figures. Even in December, but do not expect the situation should improve due to the fact that there has been extensive restrictions in production during the Christmas holidays.

Basically they reflected metal production, which fell by 11.9%. Although this is a sector that is not very visible, is an important contributor to industry and employment. Evraz stop production in Ostrava in the results noticeably manifested. Production was restored at the beginning of the year, so even here we can not wait for December's numbers better.

Pessimistic views suggest the new contract, which goes into the industry. Overall, fell by 2.3% in the sum of domestic and foreign. Domestic companies have a much more pessimistic approach - their new orders decreased by 5.5%, while foreign orders by "only" 0.6%.

 

Ing. Michal Kozub
Analyst
Home Credit as

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