Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Commodities  |  January 07, 2013 16:26:00

Disappointment of macroeconomic data hit the crown


The first year's macroeconomic data further collided crown to weaker levels. The significant drop in industrial production and a decline in imports during November 2012 signaled the continuing weakness of the domestic economy. Czech currency to weaken against the euro by about two thirds percent when shifted to the level of 25.55 CZK / EUR. Crown would these weaker levels should persevere in the rest of the week. In the middle will be released December's unemployment, for which we expect significant growth, and Friday's data on consumer inflation should show a slowdown in price growth. The data is so much downside. Today losing the Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint, both currencies have written off about two tenths of one percent.

Statistics of industrial production in November brought a significant disappointment. Production declined in annual terms by 3.9%, while market consensus had expected only 1.0%. Moreover, after adjusting for unequal number of working days (last November had one working day more compared to the same month of 2011), the production decreased markedly by 6.2%. The November data lagged well behind our pessimistic estimates. This is evident in mom terms, when the industry declined by 0.8%. We estimated essentially a mom stagnation. Industry to better benefit neither the October German orders (they increased by 3.9% m / m, the highest in the last two and a half years).

Czech foreign trade in November surprised its high in November, a surplus of CZK 35.5 billion, while the market expected CZK 22.7 billion and we are 24 billion CZK. Surprise was concentrated on the side of imports, exports, with their growth of 4.2% y / y from our estimates were not significantly different (imports in November fell by 2.4% year on year). This points to continued weakness in domestic demand. The result, however, may also indicate that firms reduce inventories and prepare for the worse and the situation on export markets, which particularly applies to the automotive industry.

In Hungary, published November producer prices. You mom fell by 0.7% in annual terms to decrease by 2.9% (-1.9% expected by the market).

Tomorrow the region will see only the Hungarian industrial production for November.

Czech swap curve is now shifted down by about 2 bb along its entire length.

Author: Marek Dřímal

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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