Investor's window  |  January 07, 2013 17:15:41

Emerge this year indexes of their dependence on central banks?


The past year was very positive indexes. Not that the world economy has recovered enough and the company was again able to increase their sales. What impressed shares as living water, the support from the world's major central banks. In the history of the euro certainly gets Draghi statement of readiness to do whatever is necessary to protect the common European currency. It was a similar game changer as the introduction of the first three-year LTRO operation in 2011.

Like in 2011 as stock indices were unable to stand on his own and still use crutches central banks. In the last week published the minutes of the last Fed meeting pointed out that fewer U.S. bankers are inclined to provide such assistance. In fact, most members of the Fed's QE3 for completion during the second half of 2013. So far, while expected, the Fed will continue these measures until unemployment falls until the United States convincingly below 7% (currently 7.8%).  

I suppose that once again we will see at first glance paradoxical environment where stagnating or even rising unemployment investors will be taken positive. While the improvement in the labor market will strengthen the position of the hawks within the Fed and thus the chance of early termination expansionary U.S. monetary policy.

Another example of how much the stock indices depend on the steps of the central bank, the development of the Japanese Nikkei 225 index from November 2012 to the present. This index strengthened in that period by more than 20% due to the fact that in Japan came to power by then opposition party. Its main policy objectives belongs combat deflation.

It seems that this year the central bank will continue to provide capital markets crutches. On Thursday will meet Board ECB and the subsequent press conference with Draghim we learn or we will at least indicated what has this year, this major supporter of the euro in the plan.

George Šimara analyst Cyrrus

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