Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Zemědělství  |  January 09, 2013 09:24:00

The unemployment rate at the end of last year topped well over 9%


The unemployment rate climbed to the end of December, in line with our expectations at 9.4% from November's 8.7%. Growth was thus slightly higher than market expectations amounted to (consensus was at 9.3%). The number of people out of work during the last month of last year increased by nearly 37,000 to more than 545,000. This makes it the highest number of people out of work since March 2011.

The labor market situation is gradually deteriorating since last year's spring months. The main reason is the unfavorable macroeconomic situation - Czech economy since the beginning of 2012 in recession. The declining capacity utilization is reflected in lower labor requirements in the industry, the construction industry faces long-term problems, retail and other sectors of the services suffer from weak domestic demand. Ultimately, this means that the economy does not create jobs.Labour offices are at the end of November were registered less than 35,000. Compared to November it was almost 4000 less.

Important role in the December rise in the unemployment rate seasonality plays, though with the onset of winter disappear especially in agriculture and construction. And this factor will burden the labor market until the spring months.

Since October began the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs to publish the unemployment rate according to the new methodology. Current registered unemployment rate, which consisted in the number of job seekers in relation to the economically active population, it will be an indicator of the proportion of unemployed persons to the total population aged 15-64 years. Since 2013, unemployment will only publish MLSA according to this new methodology. Year 2012 and unemployment according to the new methodology, closing at 7.4%.At the end of November it was 6.8% to 6.7% in October.

The labor market situation will worsen this year. Czech economy in the past year are in a recession and will fight with her for at least the first half of this year. Expected moderate recovery in economic activity in the second half of the year will be too weak to turn the negative trends on the labor market. Until the spring will also negatively affect the labor market seasonality. Under the new methodology, we expect the unemployment rate at the end of this year, around 8.4% (according to the old methodology, the unemployment rate exceeded 10%).

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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