Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  January 15, 2013 15:00:09

U.S. - economic recovery will save 8 million households and mortgages


The economic recovery in the U.S. has among other beneficial effects on the local real estate market. According to estimates, at the very bottom of the drop in the local real estate market fluctuated around 12 million U.S. households whose mortgage debts exceeded the value of the property zaúvěrované, which significantly blocked the possibility of selling the properties and possibilities of the households moving into more suitable housing. The real estate market in the last few months, he started to recover and rise in prices in many locations gradually loosened the grip. It is estimated that due to economic growth in the number of households with a lower value than the house zaúvěrování decreased by 4 million in the full current about 7 million. It is estimated that over the next 2 years this number could be further reduced to approximately 4 million.
Estimated price increase of 5% can reduce the number of undervalued home to about 5 million. In the opposite case, the development of their number will grow to 10 million over the current situation.

According to the direct participants in the real estate market to revive in many cases occurs at a much higher pace than expected. Improvements on the real estate market can support the growth of GDP growth in construction output by 0.4 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points more to GDP can move itself through growth in property prices.
Growth of real estate prices has a positive effect on consumer mood and increase general credibility.

According to the S & P / Case-Shiller choose from 20 U.S. cities best currently leads the capital of Arizona to increase by 22% over the past 12 months. Within the index, 18 metropolitan areas reported full-year price growth.Despite significant improvements in the last year prices remain in most metropolises far below the peak in 2006. For example, prices in Phoenix is ??still 45% below its former peak. The nationwide average is 19% below the peak of 2006. Price growth in many cases also related to a substantial decrease of available home market.

It is estimated that home prices since the end of 2011 increased by a total of 1.3 trillion dollars in total 23.7 trillion. Last year prices rose by an average of 4.5% for this year is estimated to grow by another 3.3%. It is estimated that sales of existing homes this year will grow by 7.2% to 4.98 million, which will be the most since 2007.
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