TRIMBROKER (TRIMBROKER)
Markets  |  January 16, 2013 14:45:52

We trust on Thin Ice


iPoint.cz In the last analysis constitute two've been writing about the signals that are incremental to the growth-risk aversion, the copy problems, central banks and politicians are very vigilant Telling about how the situation is stabilized. Well this is just a sham. German stocks also showed yesterday, what is the artificially constructed fragile trust. Sufficed words that Spain would again rating could go lower, and we saw a slump of 50 points in minutes. A landscape with a rating of either AAA are not free of risks, such as the UK is such a hard deserves its rating.

Resource issues, you can choose the optimism of the markets and would rather be called greed merchants who after a period of panic again said that now they may become nothing. Although, on the one hand, QE is causing prelievanie capital from bonds to other assets, even stádovitý again we see the effect of something to shop, what to grow. Best to see it to inject capital into shares (the highest tide of the highlights of the year 2007) and the extremely bullish sentiment tuned small investors. Sentiment Survey AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) shows that only 46.45% of traders are expected growth stocks. That is the most since February 2012, when the ECB LTRO ended. Shares month yet risen, then corrected downward. Then came a new europanika of June and July 2012.

Such circumstantial almost bezhraničnej expectations we would have found more. A month and will duplicate, but add new, not very favorable to management of the real economy. So we ran around the whole world, start in the Pacific. Japan's economy minister was expressed that it is not possible to JPY weakened by such a pace, because it is hurting exporters besides almost the entire economy (imports to Japan are to be paid in USD). So the original plan of the new government, it is enough to weaken the JPY and jump-start inflation encounters resistance. Into a dispute as to what it says is to be a strong currency Eurogroup also intervened yesterday, its chairman Juncker said the euro is too strong. Then we saw a 50 pip slump.

The European economy, today we saw automobile sales data, and that would be counted only members of the EU, and would see the biggest slump for the past 19 years. If counted well as Iceland, Norway and Switzerland, we have only the biggest slump in the last two years, a 16% year on year. It is clear that in a declining economy and growing unemployment will not sell luxury goods, such as that new car, go up. But even here we are shooting in the spiral, automakers are under pressure and prepúšťajú other people. Sales are falling sixth year, the year 2013 will be about the seventh. And tens of thousands of people were laid off and thousands of others will be laid off in other months. Governments will again respond to the words of stimuloch, nationalization, šrotovnom and guarantees jobs.But it will change anything to the fact that people now do not buy as many cars (because they would rather pay off your debts and shall endeavor to live a more modest), and that these cars can produce cheaper than elsewhere in the EU? We would estimate that it is not. And that's the root of the problem. We are unable to play the government and will arrange everything well. Len is necessary to think about the team, whose government to his step and never planned nekončiaceho demand growth helped to create production capacity, which now are not necessary.

We stand on Thin Ice planej hope that everything will resolve itself (and we while discussing the solutions and schedule) and doháňajú us old problems. The situation will not improve and remains hope that not just politicians, but also voters he understands that the solution will not be easy, nor quick nor painless.And I am not talking about stimuloch undermined nor a competitive currency. And neither crossed out spending on education and research (to smth already directs EU).

Fragile trust may commence refract, when he comes to the publication of deficits in 2012 and the market again understand that words are one and the reality is something completely different. We are not talking only about Spain, for example, but also on the Slovak Republic, which still has a relatively low bond yields.

Todays trade have borne zastabilizovanie včerajšieho shares drop, but we trade at the bottom of today's commercial zone, so the mood remains grim. Precious metals neudržali their profits (but blysla the platinum, which last traded above gold) and a decrease in oil. Today, we expect inflation data from the U.S. and can be a problem if it is established continue decline in prices from November.Waiting for zero growth, unless a negative situation would remain stable. Headlinom today's results are the U.S. financial sector (JPMorgan and GS) and industrial production USA. U.S. financial sector is doing results by JPM and GS well, we'll see what industry.

U.S. stocks without significant changes to your daily chart we can see on the last candles slight refinement and skúpenie highlights of this year's declines, trust American businessmen are so strong. Negotiations on the ceiling and dlhovom škrtoch in the U.S. nearing, so traders will definitely need it.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker


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