Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  January 17, 2013 11:44:14

Outlook for 2013: Politicians swindles, business goes into flowers. 99% are ready for a change.


The main theme of 2013 will bridge the huge gap between the improving conditions of the financial system and the real economy stumbling. This task is more complicated than most people are willing to admit, says Saxo Bank in its outlook for the first quarter of 2013.

In today's report, the Bank argues that low self-esteem small firms, which is a segment, which represents 65% of the labor market and growth in the U.S., it is worth that Saxo Bank is more pessimistic than most analysts, in terms of growth in the first quarter in the U.S. and the world. Consensus on GDP growth in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2013 was 1.6%, but Saxo Bank says it will be close to 0.8%.

As for Europe, Saxo Bank believes that this year will be a critical test of Germany's approach to the EU.Germans are gradually forced to accept the participation of foreign debt and it will have a huge impact not only on the credit rating of Germany, but also in its export. The bank predicts that painfully high unemployment and declining performance will force the southern states to the European Central Bank strongly required extensive steps, similar to those undertaken by the U.S. FED. The Presidium of the ECB, there is the majority who like printing money, which put the German Bundesbank in cruel isolation. Saxo Bank has become increasingly concerned that in an atmosphere of pan-European growth of unemployment will be violation of the Agreement on the European Union once again ignored.

As for Asia, the Bank will closely monitor China and its need to change their business model. China's economic experiment is already a generation old, was born in fact already in 1979. China's next step is to go through eye of a needle - into the largest of the "emerging" economies in the world in a completely fledged superpower. In its quarterly outlook Saxo Bank provides three key changes that China will have to undergo this transformation:

First deepen the competitive environment that will reduce corruption,

Second deeper development of domestic capital markets, which take care of the increased wealth and store, and, most importantly,

Third expansion of social programs, particularly in the area of health.

All this will ensure the transition of the economy, far too dependent on exports and the construction of infrastructure in the economy, which can also build on domestic demand and consumption. This happens only when, thanks to complex social network decreases typically Chinese propensity to save, otherwise it will forever keep the average Chinese savings rate of 40-50 per cent.

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank says:

"Our old theme support microeconomics is still the main message for the year 2013, as was the case last year as well. Too much attention has been paid to rescue banks and governments, instead of supporting entrepreneurship. Purchasing Managers Index and the overall sentiment is below 50 points or even shows recession.It may surprise us, although unexpected growth, but we doubt that the printing of money and the introduction of a European Union bank will help reverse the trend. The real threat for 2013 is that we will have to dig to the bottom, we started working on real change. 99 percent is already ready to change, but when he wakes up politicians? "

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Výhled pro r. 2013: Politici švindlují, byznys jde do kytek. 99% je připraveno na změnu.

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