World markets  |  January 17, 2013 17:12:30

Which way are you closer to European or American? / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: a week from 14 First 2,013


In recent weeks, the last year living strong financial markets nervous about the solution of "fiscal cliff" in the U.S.. Instead of "Santa Claus rally" in the U.S., investors waited to see only moderate growth in the form of an increase in the S & P by less than two percent. The very end was very nervous, which indicate the so-called fear index - VIX, which during the last two weeks of the year grew by a whopping 53%. Still only half Agreement (the discussion of U.S. spending budget to come) proved a high degree of nervousness at the beginning of this year, eliminated entirely.

Investors also noticed an interesting fact, namely, how the U.S. establishment still no money and no experience. The debt ceiling of $ 16.394 trillion has already been exceeded by about 60 billion USD, and only because of "financial measures" in the form of drawing money from federal pension funds in the United States are not in a technical bankruptcy. Will no doubt be interesting to see further development of the approaching "deadline" at the end of February. Suppose that a certain degree of nervousness at the end of January at the markets will fall. I am also convinced that, as at the end of last year over negotiations in the U.S. Congress just before the expiration limit "happy ending".

The question is whether an increase in the debt ceiling, which President Obama has taken for granted is the right way.Personally, I believe that it is not and the way the U.S. administration issued together with the central bank (FED), a degradation of dollar "sucks" in particular developing countries. They could then have a tendency to resist the same way. How would deal with any currency war, or war is not entirely clear.

Investors will have to choose which underlying the way they prefer. Whether the European - full of drastic cuts and the economic downturn or the U.S. - carrying the next wave of debt. Despite all the negatives associated with it, I believe that Europe is right.

Karel Handbag, CAPITAL GRANT


Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, in the week of 14 First 2013th


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
11th First
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 053,70
1 033,60
1,050
ˇ -1.91
980-1 060
1
4
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 488,43
13 469,00
13450
ˇ -0.14
13375 - 13620
2
3
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 125,64
3 095,00
3,085
ˇ -0.98
3060 - 3 150
1
4
FTSE 100 (UK)
6 121,60
6 079,80
6,050
ˇ -0.68
6 000 - 6210
1
4
DAX (Germany)
7 715,53
7 683,40
7,650
ˇ -0.42
7560 - 7820
2
3
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
10 801,57
10 520,40
10502
ˇ -2.60
10 300 - 10 800
0
5


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
11th First
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 053,70
1 080,00
1,070
^ 2.50
1010 - 1180
4
1
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 488,43
13 693,20
13700
^ 1.52
13150 - 14100
4
1
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 125,64
3 208,00
3,210
^ 2.64
3110 - 3320
4
1
FTSE 100 (UK)
6 121,60
6 186,80
6,250
^ 1.07
5950 - 6284
4
1
DAX (Germany)
7 715,53
7 806,60
7,893
^ 1.18
7340 - 8050
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
10 801,57
10 705,40
10800
ˇ -0.89
10250 - 11050
2
3

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara - CYRRUS
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.czassume no responsibility for these differences.

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Která cesta je vám bližší, evropská nebo americká? / BIG EXPERT - zahraniční trhy: týden od 14. 1. 2013

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