Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  January 28, 2013 07:51:00

Euro against the dollar jedenáctiměsíčním maximum


Finally last week was for the common European currency, very successful. While for the majority of the week, the market exchange rate with the U.S. dollar held without trend around 1.3300 USD / EUR, during Friday's session, the course for the first time since last February quickly got over 1.3400 USD / EUR and the early U.S. trading are already is above 1.3460 USD / EUR. Thanks to this successful campaign thus concluded the euro against the dollar last week with a profit of about one and a quarter percent.

Euro optimism helped growth in global markets due to higher investor risk appetite. For this particular Friday morning was the German Ifo index data. This is another in a series of indicators confirming the positive impact of the reduction of stress in the financial markets to the expectations, in this case entrepreneurs. Wave of optimism then endorsed the report of the European banking sector.He intends to prepay three years of loan originally ECB, in the amount of EUR 137.2 billion, which is much more than expected. It just demonstrates the improving situation in the European banking sector.

From a fundamental point of view, very interesting start to the week, it will be important U.S. indicators published in the form of the December durable goods orders, the January Fed activity index from the Dallas area and other statistics from December's Real Estate Market (Pending Home Sales). Our expectations are very optimistic, which could further encourage risky assets. The question is, what happens to the dollar. Because it can cause speculation on the early termination of the program of quantitative easing, with a positive impact on the dollar (at the expense of the euro).

FOMC Meetings to be held on Wednesday, would not be any turning. It is not even scheduled a press conference. Markets may be influenced by pre-economic indicators, we expect continued good results. Optimistic than the market, we have already mentioned in today's durable goods orders for December, January consumer confidence, which will be published tomorrow and the January data from the labor market, which will be announced on Friday. In contrast, the consensus is our GDP estimates for Q412, which will be published on Wednesday. While the market waits annualized growth of 1.2%, our estimate is only 0.7%, mainly due to lower production inventories, lower government spending and weaker net exports. It should not therefore in any way endanger the recovery of the U.S. economy and favorable prospects for Q113.For the euro area this week will see pre-January inflation figures (Thursday), Friday brings the final number PMI indices activity in the industrial sector. Overall, economic indicators this week should demand for riskier assets to support.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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