Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Currencies  |  January 30, 2013 13:24:17

Currency outlook 2013: Sell Americans Spend in Europe


According to the current exchange term investment bank Saxo Bank in 2013 was to strengthen the U.S. dollar. On the contrary, analysts warn against the euro and the Australian dollar. At the end of the euro would be only 1.12 U.S. dollar.

In the U.S., the unemployment rate continue rapid decline to a value of about 6.5% in mid- 2014 and despite a slight increase in wages. Reducing the budget of the United States, the company outsourced the phenomenon of return to their homeland and the effort to keep inflationary pressures will speak for permanent strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This should start as early as the next few months and should be relatively aggressive.

Euro it will be more complicated. The current "solution" to the crisis and bank guarantees ECB EU European Union still does not offer real relief from the debt crisis in the periphery. The euro would have in the coming months should join the devaluation race, which has a lot of late. May occur but also that we will see increasing strength of the euro and that this would lead to the disintegration of the EU periphery states because they say goodbye European monetary union. The first big test will be the Italian Solidarity runoff election at the end of February.

Japanese yen experienced a sudden and rapid arrival of elections and stormy rhetoric against a strong yen from the new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the end of 2012 quite a shock. The Japanese yen continued to weaken and the beginning of 2013. Speculation is declining independence of the Bank of Japan due to the new governor, who will take over the helm in April. The amount of public debt, Japan's demographics and weakening the bond market will lead to a weakening of the yen in the long term.

  "Commodity" dollars this year to lead all too well. The vast majority of government debt in Australia is now in foreign hands, and the country has also accumulated a huge current account deficit - Australia is not in a great position, as well as its smaller neighbor to the south, New Zealand. Any step that scare foreign investors, could mean a negative reaction and increased volatility.

Canada's position is much better than Australia or New Zealand, but the last years of "forced" monetary policy meant that private debt and real estate bubble in Canada have grown to the extreme, which can only end in a nasty hangover in the future, particularly with regardthe damage caused by too strong manufacturing base CAD Canada.

Table: The outlook for world currency pairs for 2013

4PT; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5 pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5 pt "vAlign = bottom width = 48 nowrap>

1.15

4PT; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5 pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.0pt "vAlign = bottom width = 60 nowrap>

92

5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.0pt "vAlign = bottom width = 91 nowrap>

EURJPY

4PT; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5 pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5 pt "vAlign = bottom width = 48 nowrap>

1.52

4PT; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5 pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.0pt "vAlign = bottom width = 60 nowrap>

0.75

5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5 pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.0pt "vAlign = bottom width = 91 nowrap>

EURCHF

4PT; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5 pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5 pt "vAlign = bottom width = 48 nowrap>

0.88

4PT; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5 pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.0pt "vAlign = bottom width = 60 nowrap>

1.15

5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5 pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.0pt "vAlign = bottom width = 91 nowrap>

NZDUSD

4PT; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5 pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5 pt "vAlign = bottom width = 48 nowrap>

9

75pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0cm "vAlign = bottom width = 60 nowrap>

7.5

Currency Pair

30th Third

30th 6th

31st 12th

EURUSD

1.22

1.12

USDJPY

85

88

104

101

103

GBPUSD

1.56

1.5

EURGBP

0.78

0.76

1.22

1.24

1.25

AUDUSD

0.94

0.83

USDCAD

1.04

1.1

0.75

0.7

0.66

EURSEK

8.75

8.75

EURNOK

7.3

7.4

 

 

 

 

Source: Saxo Bank, Outlook 1Q2013

 

John J. Hardy, currency strategist at Saxo Bank

 Globální online investiční banka

Saxo Bank je globální investiční banka specializující se na online obchodování a investice na mezinárodních finančních trzích. Saxo Bank umožňuje soukromým investorům a institucionálním klientům obchodovat s FX, CFD, cennými papíry, futures, opcemi a dalšími deriváty a poskytuje i profesionální správu portfolia a fondů díky svým online obchodním platformám oceněným řadou různých ocenění.

Více informací na: www.saxobank.cz

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