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Currencies  |  January 30, 2013 14:22:00

Holds the EUR / USD above 1.35?


iPoint.cz The European Commission today published index of economic sentiment in the euro has gained significant strengthening and cautious surpassed analysts' estimates. January's economic sentiment rose in mom measurement by 1.4 points to 89.2 points. Analysts expected a rise to 88.2 points. The index is thus holds in three-month upward trend and indicates the improving prospects for the euro area.

Business climate index is also slowly emerging from the worst. In December, at -1.11 points and according to today's data, in January mood improved slightly to -1.09 points.Business climate and the growth trend continues and improves for the third consecutive month. Positive sentiment in the euro zone grows mainly positive reports from Germany. Consumers, according to the European Commission also felt much better and expect improvement in their financial situation together with reduced unemployment. Euro area GDP in the 3rd quarter of 2012 fell by 0.1 percent and the economy fell back into recession (two consecutive quarters of contraction). Eurozone must now combat, so this year's first year was much better, and the economy has enjoyed growth.

The Spanish economy is sinking deeper into recession. Today's GDP result for the last quarter in 2012 showed that the budget cuts and high unemployment are the main enemy of the Spaniards. The fourth largest economy in the euro zone fell mezikvartálním measurement by 0.7 percent.The pace of the downturn the last 3 months of 2012 nearly doubled.

The Spanish economy is in recession came in 2011 due to the housing bubble bursting. Southerners are not able to deal with government austerity packages and high unemployment (26 percent). The government is expected to improve this year and would be enjoyed economic growth at the end of the year, but economists consider too optimistic. Last quarter in 2012 compared to the last quarter of 2011 has seen a deterioration of 1.8 percent. Overall, GDP in 2012, down by 1.37 percent in comparison with 2011 onwards.

The labor market in the U.S. has experienced in recent weeks significant growth.'s National employment report (ADP Non-Farm Employment Change), which measures the monthly change in the number of Americans employed outside the agricultural sector and the state in January brought 192,000 new jobsplaces. Economists expect that after a strong December (215,000 new jobs), the private sector can not create more than 164,000 jobs and today's result is such a pleasant surprise.

U.S. GDP in the last quarter of 2012 garnered contraction of 0.1 percent. It is the unexpected deterioration, since the majority consensus of economists expected 1.1 percent growth. It is the first such contraction since the recession of 2007-2009. The last quarter of 2012, compared to offend the 4th quarter of 2011 by 0.1 percent. Today's bad result sent an urgent signal to politicians to resolve disputes regarding the state budget. In a politically advantageous position he finds himself the Federal Reserve (FED), which will continue in the open-ended bond purchasing over $ 85 billion a month.Economists suggest that, to reduce unemployment will need at least 3 percent growth of the economy.

Eurodollars now overcome resistance together with 1.35 Fibonacci surface 50 of the weekly chart. Strong bullish trend so far continues. The nearest resistance is currently 1.36 price. From breaking this level can be expected to consolidate, as was the case with piercing levels of 1.34 and 1.35. The signal for a long position could then come again at level 1.35.

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