Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  January 31, 2013 16:10:09

Ministry of Finance forecasts: A marked improvement of the economy should be in 2014


Czech economy is probably in the whole of 2012 found in a shallow recession. From it could all have been at the beginning of this year should secede, reviving economic activity, it should be very gradual. GDP would be year on year increase was only 0.1%. The economy in 2013 should continue to be driven by surplus power balance, the positive contribution of net exports, it should have been nearly offset by a negative contribution to gross domestic expenditure.

A marked recovery in economic activity should occur in 2014, when GDP could increase by 1.4%, while the positive contribution both foreign trade and gross domestic expenditure.

For 2013, we expect growth in consumer prices by 2.1%, in 2014 the average rate of inflation is 1.8%. In both years should therefore be close CNB's inflation target, with risks as an acceleration of inflation, and deflation, we consider low. This year, the rise in consumer prices significantly influenced both by increasing VAT rates by 1 percentage point to 1 January 2013.

Employment, which in 2012, according to the current estimate increased by 0.4% in this year and next should stagnate. Trend of slight growth, however, should show the unemployment rate, which last year from an estimated 6.9% this year to increase to 7.3% (average for the whole year) and in 2014 further to 7.4%.Growth in wages and salaries in this year could reach 1.9% in 2014, then 3.5%.

The ratio of the current account deficit to GDP should slightly exceed the limit of 1%, and is expected to remain at a low level.

Risk prediction are slightly tilted downwards. Besides the further development of the crisis in the euro area is also a low risk level of confidence in the Czech economy.

Source: Ministry of Finance Press Release

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