Czech markets  |  January 31, 2013 19:17:04

Hasty ECB / BIG EXPERT - shares: Week from 28 First 2,013


Balance sheet of the European Central Bank began shrinking. While the U.S. Fed is printing new money on the one hundred and six, the ECB has already almost a year to the balance nepřikoupila nothing more actively. The retreat of monetary expansion is hasty and not on the eurozone periphery that step yet ripe.

ECB balance shrank to its lowest level in the last year (2.93 trillion euros) and will go down. ECB is allowing banks to prematurely repay some of the money lent under operation LTRO (Long Term Repo Operations). Part because banks repay 137 billion euros of three-year loans from the ECB. The management of the ECB has so far like this development.Considers it to be evidence of decreasing tension at the periphery and at the same time it solves the problem seemingly automatically exit strategy from a number of emergency operations as LTRO. But the ECB between major central banks in the policy so far alone.

That is why the euro in recent months began to significantly strengthen the front and the dollar is trading near annual highs (ECB balance is roughly the annual lows). The problem is that the euro area for such a hardening of monetary conditions are not ripe. Voltage on peripheral markets, while at the end of the year declined significantly, but it still did not show the real economy. Conversely, the fourth quarter of 2012 was in large periphery as in Spain, marked by further fall in domestic demand. At the same time, as shown by the latest survey of the ECB, the Bank regardless of the voltage drop in the financial markets clients further toughened the conditions for borrowing.One of the few hopes weakened periphery are thus improving prospects for export.

The European Central Bank has not the strong euro does too, because of its impact on the euro area economy has never been crucial. Decimated domestic demand in Spain and Italy, places the role of exporters and euro in a new light. A strong euro would soon could become a new nightmare for the European economy. ECB at the moment only two options. Either will continue to print and the euro weakened or have strong euro kill first starting recovery and will eventually be forced to print a little later.

Jan Bures, ERA PSB

Expert opinions on the future development of selected stocks on the Czech capital market in the next month and a half, a week from 28 First 2013th


The estimate for the period from 28 First to 25 Second 2013 (1 months)

Name
Attractiveness
Price
(Monday)
Definitely
buy
Buy
No
action
Sell
Definitely
sell
UNIPETROL
^ 40
170
2
0
3
0
0
CETV
^ 40
109.5
1
2
2
0
0
PEGAS NONWOVENS
^ 30
503.7
0
3
2
0
0
ERSTE BANK GROUP
^ 30
627.6
0
3
2
0
0
TELEFÓNICA O2 CR
30
322.5
1
1
3
0
0
COMMERCIAL BANK
^ 30
3,745
1
1
3
0
0
NWR
^ 10
88
0
1
4
0
0
PHILIP MORRIS CR
^ 10
11175
1
0
3
1
0
VIG
0
1,003
0
0
5
0
0
ČEZ
0
613
0
2
2
0
1


The estimate for the period from 28 First to 29 7th 2013 (6 months)

Name
Attractiveness
Price
(Monday)
Definitely
buy
Buy
No
action
Sell
Definitely
sell
UNIPETROL
^ ^50
170
2
1
2
0
0
PEGAS NONWOVENS
^ ^ 50
503.7
0
5
0
0
0
ERSTE BANK GROUP
^ ^ 50
627.6
2
2
0
1
0
TELEFÓNICA O2 CR
^ 40
322.5
1
2
2
0
0
NWR
^ 40
88
1
3
0
1
0
VIG
^ 40
1,003
0
4
1
0
0
CETV
^ 30
109.5
0
3
2
0
0
COMMERCIAL BANK
^ 20
3,745
0
3
1
1
0
ČEZ
^ 10
613
1
2
0
1
1
PHILIP MORRIS CR
ˇ -40
11175
0
1
1
1
2

Rating this week performed:

  • George Ramakrishnan - BH Securities
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Dušan Reactive - UniCredit Bank Czech Republic

Statistics deals with ten of the most liquid stocks traded on the PSE. The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts listed. The column "Price" the Monday course selected titles from which to its estimates experts came out. With this value estimates will be after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. The column "Attractiveness" the weighted average number of views and can take values ??from -100 to +100. Number of views "Sell", "Buy", etc. is published in other columns.
Note: Ratings are in the form of non-binding opinions, whether a security would be advisable to buy or sell with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year.
The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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Uspěchaná ECB / BIG EXPERT - akcie: týden od 28. 1. 2013

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