Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  February 01, 2013 15:59:00

CNB perhaps stirred up stagnant water


Czech koruna experienced a very quiet week. Lack of new kurzotvorných messages signed the minimum change in its value. Domestic currency against the euro ranged from less than 20 cents. Compared to the end of last Friday, however, one euro tripped about 10 cents on the interbank market and at the end of the week were sold at prices around 25.65 crowns. The crown is in comparison with other Central European currencies became total loser with losses around one third percent.

Regional winner was clearly the Hungarian forint, the only solidified. While its profits have reached a decent 1.75%. The reason was generally improved sentiment in markets that encourage domestic leading indicators. The expected reduction in interest rates on the currency pair HUF / EUR had no effect.Conversely published comments sounded rather in favor of cautious easing of monetary policy. Finally, the Hungarian forint helps in times of heightened sentiment, high interest differential.

Polish zloty suffered a series of macroeconomic data, which show the gradual decline of economic activities of our northern neighbor. That might earn lower interest rates by the NBP, which we should see in the next week. Positive sentiment in global markets and trump adverse events from the domestic economy and the zloty against the euro and virtually stagnated.

Crown next week grasses new direction especially meeting of the Czech National Bank. Comments will be interesting to exchange rate developments.Central bankers about the need weaker koruna, which in the "zero" interest rates takes over the function of the main instruments of monetary policy. Markets now speculate on the level of interest rates, which would be adequate for the central bank to help it meet the inflation target. Any comment that would have indicated a level that would definitely cleared turbid water. Markets so expect a clear signal from the central bank, where the rate CZK / EUR should move and how they intend to achieve this goal. If not, they can have the opposite effect disappointing comments in the development of the crown, which would result could eventually strengthen.

In addition, the central bank will publish a new macroeconomic forecast. Inflation forecast by us nedozná major changes, although weaker Czech koruna antiinflačním effect will be offset by the Czech economy.Forecasts GDP will probably be revised downwards, particularly due much weaker GDP for Q3 12th

Next week will be published in February, the first data (retail sales, construction, industrial production, foreign trade, unemployment). Estimates of individual indicators are not very favorable. Annual growth in industry, exports and retail trade is significantly affected by the lower number of working days. After adjusting for this factor will notice a slight improvement in the retail industry in the case should go virtually the same decline as in November. Exports would then be slightly worse. The labor market should continue the negative trend in the form of rising unemployment and lack of job creation. It fully fits into the picture recesního environment of the Czech economy.

From the above, there is virtually no argument, which should turn the current development of the domestic currency. In comparison with the equilibrium exchange rate level is located on the weaker levels, which should remain for the whole year. But they also do not think it should be weakening already over. Over time, the crown should continue to lose at the end of this year to move above the 26.00 CZK / EUR.


Author: Miroslav Frayer

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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