Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  February 06, 2013 10:18:20

Comments to foreign trade - a record surplus, but the growth rate decreased


The trade balance reached in the end of last year a surplus of EUR 6.4 billion. Over the past year, reported a positive balance of € 310.8 billion, the largest surplus in the history of the Czech Republic.

On the other hand, fell in December as exports (-7.1%) and imports (-7.0%). This, however, greatly helped calendar effects when the number of working days in last December was three less than in December 2011.Taking into account the adjusted data, the exports increased by 1.2% and imports by as much as 1.5%. Over the past year, exports grew by 6.4% and imports by 2.4%.

Significant trade surplus can be unambiguously positive. The goods produced in the Czech Republic is beyond interest, despite the very good economic situation in most EU countries, where it is going vast majority of domestic exports. On the other hand, one can not notice the negative tendencies. Exports of road vehicles and machines decreases, which is among other things caused by the decline in demand in Western Europe. Over the past year there was a lower rate of imports, which in turn confirms the recession, the domestic economy.

Outlook for this year and from this point of view is too optimistic. On the other hand, the German leading indicators suggest that the economy of our key business partner begins to rise again. Recovery in foreign demand should thus also help the Czech economy. However, this is unlikely to occur before the second half of this year.

Miroslav Novak
Analyst

The first time last year, in December, the trade balance deteriorated year. Foreign trade surplus amounted to CZK 6.4 billion in December 2011 amounted to CZK 7.2 billion. Exports compared to the previous year fell by 7.1 percent, while imports fell by 7.0 percent. On both sides of the balance showed a lower number of working days.

In foreign trade reflected worsening economic situation in the euro area. Major trading partner of the Czech Republic, Germany and data for the final quarter of last year show a QoQ decline in GDP.Exports from the Czech Republic to Germany in December fell by 11.9 percent. Better off unfortunately neither exports to Slovakia, which decreased by 10.4 percent. In terms of commodity structure for the total development of key exports decline exports of machinery and transport equipment by 8.7 percent.

Weak domestic demand is reflected in the declining imports. The decline in consumer demand has led to a decline in imports of industrial consumer goods by 9.0 percent. Downturn in investment activities decreased imports of machinery and transport equipment by 6.2 percent.

The worsening economic climate in Europe limits the possibilities of the Czech economy offset declining domestic demand improvement in net exports. The contribution of foreign trade to GDP remained in 4thquarter of last year is positive, however, decreased and GDP drop because deepened.

For the full year reached a record high foreign trade surplus of 311 billion CZK. This year, the forecast showed a surplus of CZK 290 billion.

 

David Marek, Patria Finance

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