Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  February 06, 2013 17:38:00

Interventions are less urgent by the CNB, the crown strengthened sharply


Today brought a significant strengthening of the koruna against the euro. The reason for the surprising findings from the press conference after the monetary policy meeting of the CNB. Governor Singer introduced the new forecast and also said that the need for further easing of monetary conditions (through foreign exchange interventions) is now less urgent. Due to inflationary data, which of the Czech economy in recent times came, the market is expected to support comments rather weaker crown. Crown after the governor's words quickly erase its losses from the morning compared to yesterday's trading, and the final value will eventually scored almost a percentage. While during the morning Czech currency attacked the weakest level in seven months around 25.75 CZK / EUR and in the afternoon on the interbank market traded slightly below 25.40 CZK / EUR.

At the same time this morning published data from the Czech economy brought more disappointment. December's industry fell by 12.5% ??year on year, which fell short of market expectations at -11.0%. Although he had a large share in this decrease lower number of working days compared to December 2011, however the adjusted data showed a worse situation in other industries. Mom activity in the sector fell by 0.1% (SA, WDA). Construction fell by as much as 17.3% y / y, but again we have to take into account the negative calendar effects. The mom data shows that construction is reflected from the bottom, when you straighten up in December by 2.2% (SA, WDA).

Unpleasant surprises brought the December foreign trade. The overall balance showed a surplus of only 6.4 billion CZK (market expectations of 16.5 billion CZK), which was an increase of CZK 0.7 billion less. Disappointed with their deeper slump and exports, which fell by 7.1% year on year (market had expected a decrease of only 3.0% year on year). December's foreign trade so undeveloped for the good results of the previous two months and mom worsened by approximately CZK 15 billion (seasonally adjusted data). On the other hand, we should not overestimate this result is due to the influence of a lower number of working days (as well as in industry and construction). Far more important is the trend at the beginning of this year.

Poland's central bank in line with market expectations lowered its base rate by 25 bps to 3.75%. Zloty in anticipation of monetary easing during the day weakened. Comment governor Marek Belka, but the market evaluated so that further rate cuts in the near future is not planning (at least at the next meeting in March). Zloty therefore corrected towards stronger levels and during the day he finally scored modest gains around tenths of one percent.

The forint we have no fundamental factors kurzotvorných forthcoming. Hungarian currency proofread so just yesterday's empowerment, when he recorded losses roughly half a percent. Markets watch as the government in Budapest stands up to the appointment of a new governor of the Hungarian central bank. The current chief Andras Simor MNB ends next month.

Czech swaps today responded to the CNB meeting increase by 3-5 bp, with significant growth we saw at the short end. Also held auctions of government bonds. Lived to see solid demand bond with a coupon of 3.4% and maturity in 2015. Ministry sold 3.5 billion CZK, while investors demanded more than 9 billion CZK. The average yield was 0.5%, slightly below yesterday's levels on the market. The second bond, which is now sold, was a paper with a coupon of 4.2% and maturity in 2036. For him, the demand was weaker, while the ministry signed to CZK 2.1 billion. The average yield was 3.1%.

Author: Marek Dřímal

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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Intervence jsou podle ČNB méně urgentní, koruna prudce posílila

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