Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  February 07, 2013 17:00:00

Crown continued to strengthen

After yesterday full of events from the domestic economy from Poland was calmer today's trading. In the Czech Republic we have not seen any new data. The crown, however, continued to strengthen when the interbank market briefly attacked even level 25.20 CZK / EUR. During the afternoon, but the Czech currency proofread slightly toward the value of 25.25 CZK / EUR. Even so, the strongest crown last month.

Reinforce other regional currencies. Forint scored nearly half a percent, while Hungary held relatively successful auction of government bonds. Expectations also fell over December's industrial production, which fell by only 3.4% y / y (-4.5% expected by the market). Polish zloty scored modest gains about two tenths of one percent.

Tomorrow you will see from the Czech economy's January unemployment rate. The current recession in the Czech economy is consistent with its further growth. The share of unemployed persons (not seasonally adjusted, methodology MLSA) began to increase since May last year from 6.6% to 7.1% in December 2012. In January, the unemployment rate according to our estimates, an increase of 0.2 percentage points to 7.3% (SA), which is slightly higher growth compared with the previous month. The reason is, in our non-renewal of fixed-term contracts, which could be significant in recesním environment. Not seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is expected to increase from 7.4% in December to 7.9% in January, which is for the most part negative January seasonality.In the following months, the situation on the labor market should continue to deteriorate, as enterprises will be recruiting new staff cautious rather be expected layoffs.

Czech swap curve is virtually unchanged today.

Author: Marek Dřímal

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