Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  February 11, 2013 08:23:00

Euro should remain under pressure


Euro last week corrected the strengthening of his earlier this year. Reason was the ECB press conference, where Mario Draghi said that the strong euro could jeopardize the ECB's inflation target. Markets have interpreted this act as a kind of verbal intervention against the common European currency. The so during the week, wrote more than two percent and the interbank market closed at 1,336 USD / EUR.

Euro should remain under pressure this week as well. In Europe they had on Thursday published GDP figures for the last quarter of last year. You should show a significant decline in economic activity in Q4 12th Our colleagues from SG expect that the euro area decreased from the previous quarter by 0.4% (the most marked decline over the last four years), for Germany even predict a decline of 0.6% q / q.The market prices should already be worse expectations of these indicators largely included, but their publication (and eventual disappointment) will likely have an impact on market sentiment and as a result we may be witnessing sell-off of risky assets. The crisis in the EMU is still not over and the addition of bad data for GDP it will remind investors still Italian elections. They are held for two weeks and the best chance to win is probably Silvio Berlusconi, who is opposed to austerity measures required by the European Union and investors. The upcoming election and the likely victory of Berlusconi is another possible reason for the weaker euro.

In the U.S., this week will see the January data for retail sales and industrial production. The market expects a slight monthly increase in retail sales, industrial production shows a consensus for a slight decline.In Asia, will be quieter this week to celebrate the Chinese New Year. Viewfinder investors will be focused on Europe.


Author: Marek Dřímal

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