Forex Zone (Forex Zone)
Czech markets  |  February 11, 2013 09:47:05

Will the currency war?


Wall Street Journal article brought the weekend that the people responsible for monetary policy in the U.S. and the EU negotiating a joint statement, which should ward off potentially destabilizing round of currency devaluations in the world.

Reportedly these discussions began after the anniversary of the Japanese Prime Minister Abe and his allies. Based on their rhetoric, it appears that the objectives of a specific course of Japanese yen.But the rhetoric of Japanese, which lasts for a longer period of time, which resulted in a large weakening yen, responded to some of the countries of Latin America's rhetoric about currency wars in which states will seek to devalue its currency to support exports.

Other party to the retort may be after its Thursday Draghi also indicate that de facto acknowledged that the euro is very high, and logically so negatively affects export. We might as well stay at home and look also at the steps CNB, which twice cut rates to virtually 0%. While this short CZK weakened, but this weakness lasted only a few weeks. We believe that it is too short period of time, and we expect that the CNB will try to get back around CZK 25.60, potentially to 25.80.

More fun will be when most major economies will have a rate of 0%. Then, some forex pairs "wild", as it is now JPY.

As regards developments in the monitored pair EUR / USD, so that on Friday, consolidating around the 1.3400 level. The market many times "retained" as support. During the U.S. session, the price approached the next few pips Reviews Support around 1.3350 where reinforcing started.

Today we do not expect significant macro disclosure reports. We expect therefore quieter day. When price returns to the resistances will consider short trades and even longer term.With the drop in prices for major supportům we will consider only short-term long trades on reflections from such support.

Major resistance for today we see around 1.3425 and 1.3460. Remain significant supports of around 1.3350 and 1.3320.

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