BOSSA.CZ (BOSSA.CZ)
Markets  |  February 12, 2013 09:31:00

Intraday Analysis EUR / USD and overview of the most important events in a Nutshell


The threat from Cyprus
Yesterday's meeting of the eurogroup offered political struggle of the Cypriot Minister of Finance against the remaining politicians. Cyprus is refusing to transfer the losses or debt to some bank deposits, which is one of the conditions of the rescue program. Cyprus needs 17 billion euros to recapitalize their banks and must borrow it from the eurozone. This, unfortunately, do not like the Eurogroup, because the loan itself is as big as the Cypriot GDP so try to suggest another option.

A lot of proposals have been rejected by the European Central Bank or the European Commission. Cyprus fundamentally goes against their punishment depositories. The new head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem stood behind his Cypriot colleague, when he said that on this solution will no longer discuss.Cyprus is also often criticized for its lack of transparency in banking, where it seems to thrive dirty money. Today the Ecofin meeting will have to face these criticisms again Cypriot Minister of Finance and hope that he will be able to negotiate for their country favorable conditions to help.

Sentiment on financial markets worsen bad data of European companies
Sentiment worsened series grim outlooks from several major companies including Germany's largest steel mill ThyssenKrupp. This German steel company warned that this year expects the global economic recovery, while the decline in steel prices and weak auto sales slump caused quarterly core earnings by 38 percent.

A similar tone also came from the Dutch manufacturer of navigation devices and digital maps, TomTom, who noted that this year expects sharp fall in profits, partly caused by the poor condition of the European car market

Korean nuclear test
Investors are also on alert after North Korea on Tuesday conducted its third nuclear test. The move apparently angered the country's main ally in the region, China, and intensify international pressure against Pyongyang

German Ministry of Economy published the country's economic outlook
The German economy is expected to decline over the fourth quarter of this year gradually gaining momentum with how the global economic environment improves."While the weak development of industrial production and construction show a decline in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2012, multiply the signals that this period of weak economic growth will soon overcome," said resort in the monthly report.

The Ministry pointed in particular to better industrial orders rose in December to 0.8 percent due to the recovery in demand from the euro area and the economic sentiment surveys indicate that businesses, investors and consumers are becoming larger optimistic due to stabilization of the situation on the international financial markets and the real economy.

The German economy, according to preliminary estimates in the last three months of last year shrank by 0.5 percent (data will be published on Thursday morning). Economists, however, have generally considered that the country avoids technical recession thanks to a slight increase in GDP in the first quarter.

• Standard & Poor's increased the rating of Ireland
Standard & Poor's raised its rating Ireland. While leaving it on the same level, and BBB-, but improved outlook from negative to stable. Uplift rating joins a agency Fitch. Only agency Moody's has underestimated the agreement with the ECB, Ireland, which took place last week. Ireland has secured distribution through her debt payments for a longer period, thus reducing annual government deficit of around one billion euros.

Barclays dismiss 3,700 employees
British bank Barclays announced that it would cut at least 3,700 jobs and cancel some of the investment division of the plan to reduce costs by L 1.7 billion a year.

High exchange rate of the euro
One of the themes of yesterday's meeting of eurozone finance ministers (Eurogroup) was strong euro and its impact on the competitiveness of exporters and the subsequent difficult recovery performance data fragile European economy. Euro grew after he vanished fears about the future existence of a common monetary union. The main initiator of this debate was France, which appeals to the ECB to set the maximum amount of the euro against the dollar. In the words of Pierre Moscovici, the French Minister of Finance, the exchange rate should reflect the true underlying state of the economy and not an instrument of speculation. He added that at Friday's meeting of the G20 countries wanted the Europeans to present a joint plan to protect the euro against excessive appreciation.

Jens Weidmann, president of Germany's Bundesbank yesterday said that countries like France such actions only distract from the real problems of the economy. It argues that competitiveness of exporters revive weaker euro but structural changes in the economy. He added that the central bank intervention in foreign exchange rates, would result only managed to inflation.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Eurogroup admitted that the topic of the strong euro was discussed at yesterday's meeting, but the more space it gets to the weekend meeting in Moscow.

The issue of a stronger euro need to watch from all angles. On the one hand, while exporters lose ground on the other side will be cheaper imports, especially energy resources, which could stimulate economic growth.Most of the finance ministers of the common monetary union has not yet pretend that ECB intervention against strong euro will not support.

Eurodollars continued to weaken and logically corrects its previous rapid growth. Traded under significant level 1,34 and it is likely that we will look to Reviews Support 1.3280. This would suggest and hidden bearish divergence. The crucial point remains the rising trend line on the daily chart.

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