Investor's window  |  February 13, 2013 10:25:26

Get a TPSA shares Telefónica CR?


On Tuesday morning announced its results of Polish telephone operator TPSA. The initial reaction was only -32%, in the course of the loss of a little corrected to around -25%. This of course did not leave in peace Telefonica shares Czech Republic, which is briefly came under the 300 CZK, which was the lowest since 2004. Should investors worry Telefonica CR similar negative effects as taking place in the TPSA?

Polish operator TPSA reported that profit for Q4 2012 amounted to PLN 51 million in expected 167 million PLN. For the full year profit was PLN 855 million, while in 2011 it was 1.92 billion PLN. This is a real flop also accompanied by other negative news. Management decided to reduce the dividend by 50% to 0.5 PLN per share and reduce long-term investment plans.Not that the company had no money for expected dividend 1 PLN, but uncertainty about the frequency of payments for the purchase and the possibility of fines from the European Commission forced the company to maintain safe balance. Telefonica Czech shareholders might get worried that the company will also want to withhold money for the auction of frequencies, which would then lacked the dividend payment. This risk does not seem important (even if it exists), as CEO of Telefónica CR with past results announced that an auction can be financed by debt and planned changes in dividend policy. In my view, despite the problems TPSA main scenario of maintaining the dividend 40 CZK per share, but with the risk of biased downward to a lower dividend.

TPSA Management announced a significant reduction in revenue outlook for 2013 mainly due to competitive struggle and unlimited tariffs. This is to some extent also on the Czech telecommunications market, but so dramatic observations on management in 2013 from the management of Telefonica O2 do not expect. Although economic results are likely due to worse, but they should not deviate from a slightly downward trend.

Elusive and invaluable factor is the panic and the results of the auction of frequencies. Panic obviously works very reliably and Telefónica CR is very sensitive to any news from operators from neighboring countries. Valuations title is currently very low and offers a convenient opportunity to "easy" profits, but risks (especially those unknowns) are many and investor should count on significant potential losses.

Tomáš Menčík, CFA

Analyst Cyrrus

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