Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  February 14, 2013 10:27:02

Comments GDP - no surprise, the recession continues, export enough to fall in domestic demand


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Gross domestic product in the fourth quarter decreased by 0.2 percent compared with the previous quarter. Year-on economic output fell by 1.7 percent. Czech economy is stagnating or declining for a year and a half, and its recovery is in sight.

The decline in GDP in the last three months of last year, is expected to reduce household consumption and weak investment activity. In the case of falling household spending the explanation lies in the combination of rising unemployment, falling real wages and rising care, which leads to greater savings.Investments are suffering due to reduced activity of companies and smaller volume of public procurement. The statistical report is unfortunately no mention of government consumption expenditure. Positively to the development of the economy continues to contribute foreign trade, but not enough to offset the negative impact of weak domestic demand.

In comparison with other European countries, which have already published the results of GDP for the 4th quarter, the performance of the Czech economy significantly below average. Worse is that only Hungary, where GDP fell by 2.7 percent. Newsflash annual change in GDP in other countries: Slovakia 0.7 percent, Germany 0.4 percent, Austria 0.4 percent, 0.3 percent in Romania, France, -0.3 percent, -0.9 percent, the Netherlands, Hungary, -2, 7 percent.

Over the past year, GDP in the Czech Republic declined by 1.1 percent after growth of 1.9 percent in 2011. For its peak, the economy has reached the 3rd quarter of 2008, GDP lags by 2.6 percent. Reach pre-crisis performance, the Czech economy can soon next year, maybe in 2015.

This year I expect continuing recession in the first two quarters and a modest recovery in the second half, it would still be for the full year, GDP to fall by 0.4 percent.

David Marek, Patria Finance

Ekonomika in the fourth quarter, according to general expectations fell again. Compared with the previous quarter decreased by 0.2% and 1.7% yoy. At the monthly level was a little better than in the third quarter, when the economy fell by three tenths percent. In annual comparison, but it's the worst quarterly result of this year, when economic contraction with each quarter grew. Although it is a negative trend that shows at a glance downward, there is a chance for improvement and growth, albeit small, in the second half of the year may be real.

Although Statistical Office disclosed transmission structure of GDP, is likely to know who brought positive and one negative numbers. Consumers and consumption that were negative, which did not support growth. According to retail sales shows that annual consumption further decreases. December, thanks to a lower number of working days, was one of the worst months of the year. Yet hope is to see, especially when falling inflation may positively affect consumer demand and encourage her.

Negative values ??come from the industrial area, which is a resource of GDP. Industry, which is in the Czech Republic unilaterally oriented to producing cars again experiencing a difficult period, when in December significantly decreased production cars. This of course affects their suppliers and subcontractors. Similarly, it is also in construction, which continues its long-term fall in recent years.

Positive values ??again brought foreign trade, which gives strength to the economy. Although December came out exactly to the liking, but overall the year was from his point of view very successful. In addition, the main trading partner Germany indicates in its predictive indicators that this year might not be so bad, and so we have nowhere to export.

That is why we can expect that if consumers wake up from lethargy, and help your consumption economy and, in the second half to come back economic growth. Definitely will not be an immediate missile launch, but rather a gradual onset. Hinder growth will range brakes, both the reduction of budget expenditures, as well as high unemployment, which this year will be a major negative trend of the year.

Current values ??released today and Slovakia. This is unlike the Czech Republic still maintains its economy to grow, though overgrown year by 1.2% after seasonal adjustment. While in the Czech Republic, we take this result as excellent, the Slovak Republic as their worst performance this year. In comparison with the previous quarter Slovak economy grew by two-tenths of one percent. Even on the local economy is reflected problems in Europe and weaker car production at year end. Nevertheless, the hope to endure in the black next year.

Ing. Michal Kozub
Analyst
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