Research (Česká spořitelna)
Markets  |  February 19, 2013 10:13:01

Nowotny and Draghi (ECB): EUR strength should not dramatize, we will continue to monitor


iPoint.cz ECB's Nowotny said that the strength of EUR not dramatize that GBP is in the normal range and that EMU would soon start to grow. Against the dollar as it is a cool EUR (helps alleviate concerns about the EMU, the U.S. fiscal contraction and the ECB balance sheet), while against the yen strengthened, but not dramatically. We see it similarly. It is important in these discussions, the yen lose perspective - before the crisis was EURJPY 150-160, a massive weakening of the euro during the crisis was the result of an unprecedented monetary policy of the ECB (Japan'm too loosen rate was zero on it before) and - from mid-2010 - and because of the debt crisis. Easing concerns about a catastrophic collapse EMU contributed to turnover observed since summer 2012.We're not saying that the movement is not fast, but it still needs to be viewed in the light by longer trends. Otherwise, the pound against the dollar reached the bottom 7M (1.544) after M. Weale of the BoE said it would not hurt things, even if the pound weakened thereby helping the economy.

Draghi yesterday reiterated what he says every CB that will monitor the strength of the currency and in the near inflation forecast will be clear if the strengthening EUR or had no impact on the inflation outlook, which is therefore the only way is the EUR against the dollar or other currencies interested. It also said it considered excessive talk of currency wars - I agree with that, after all the measures the Fed, BoE, SNB and BOJ but the nature of monetary policy, to help the weak economy (or, in the case of CHF, to avoid negative effects of too strong currency ). It was not primarily measures to gain an advantage in foreign trade through the depreciation of the currency.

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Nowotny a Draghi (ECB): Síla EUR by se neměla dramatizovat, budeme ji dále monitorovat

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