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Macroeconomics  |  February 22, 2013 13:14:17

French exception


iPoint.cz FOMC Jastrabie

Equity markets in the U.S. ended in losses of trading again: Dow Jones -0.34% SP500 -0.63%, Nasdaq Composite -1.04%. Traders for the sale of the shares leaned on stredajšiu FOMC Minutes, which appeared in the discussion of U.S. central bank that in future it would be appropriate to reduce or even limit the purchases of assets. Market it gathered together as Jastrabie statement, which lured traders and caused the decline in growth stocks and the U.S. dollar. The euro also nepriali or weak data managers index for the euro area of ??shopping. Data from the U.S. also dissembled when the manufacturing sector index from Philadelphia scored very weak result.Volatility index VIX after stredajšom najsilnejšom Growth from November 2011 identified further action. To shares nor for earnings season, which is very good. 75% of companies in the SP500 index outstripped expectations of profit, while 65% of companies also outstripped expectations in sales.

Bank of splácajú LTRO less

Today, however, we see a continuation of the decline in the euro. In the introduction to the trading month euro prospered sample data for better German IFO sentiment of managers, no low projections for the euro area, the European Commission and also even lower volume sources of repayment of the second three-year LTRO sent the euro to a new daily lows. European banks had decided at the first possibility disburse resources LTRO only in volume of 61.1 billion euros, while consensus waited up to 125 billion euros. After much vyššom resources from the payment of the first LTRO in a volume of 137.1 billion was foreseen similar volume behold.Merchant So this is a disappointment and, therefore, the euro fell down.

France gets an exemption

Returning however to the European Commission. Tá today published its new winter outlook for growth, inflation, unemployment and indebtedness of EU countries. Most attention pútalo France, where it splashed on whether a country meets the conditions of this fiscal year pact or not. The land gives the task to have this year the deficit below 3%. France until mid-February claimed that conditions meet the deficit, since will have a strong growth to 0.8%. As it shows, the growth this year by the Commission only at the level of 0.1%. Expect growth to fall to 0.4%, so the French government was nevertheless optimistic. And how should this affect the reduction in deficit? EK expected deficit this year to 3.7% next year and up to 3.9%.To help come next commissioner Rehn, who said that the condition the fulfillment of fiscal pact could be moved to France in 2014. And what about next year? Perhaps further adjournment. After all rules are not to be changed over when it is necessary.



Deficit optimism is not even in the U.S.

Deficit of optimism has flax French government and the European Commission, whose perspectives tend to be mostly lastly revised downward, but also the U.S. Congress budget office (CBO). He was constantly in their perspectives expects the U.S. economy very quickly closes the gap towards potenciálnemu product, well-to-GDP that the economy should be achieved without increase in inflation.



U.S. in better positions

Although in the U.S. but is still optimistic similarly as in Europe, it is clear that the U.S. economy is better placed to it in order to be successful at better. The decline in the dollar since the beginning of the crisis, progress in deleveraging, cheap energy and a healthy demographic growth in the U.S. economy predispose to the nearest years has grown faster than the euro area. Still holds true that when you sneeze America, Europe gets a cold. Large up to date because the recession was really strong, Europe will still feel its consequences.

View on today

Euro today failed to take advantage of better data IFO sentiment and again declines. U.S. stock indexes but they look ripe for reflection and SP500 index could still grow to the level of 1517 points. Euro would such growth could also help, but we can see progress in the euro only as an opportunity to sell in order to 1.33.

Author: John Benaki | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker


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