Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  February 25, 2013 16:02:00

Confidence in the domestic economy increased slightly in February


Czech koruna to home week slightly bettered. While the first morning quotations in the interbank market stood above 25.55 CZK / EUR in the afternoon was tested levels of 25.50 CZK / EUR. Gains crown so not done even a quarter percent. This surrounding regional currencies fared much better. Gains Hungarian forint during the day amounted to half a percent, the Polish zloty was a little more successful.

Positive sentiment in the Central European region supported the strengthening of the euro against the dollar, which thus moved away from Friday's six-week bottom. Influence then be published and economic indicators. From Poland we saw surprisingly favorable data from retail. The January sales had been down by 3.1% higher when in December were 2.5% y / y lower, and thus to overcome the market expectation of 0.7% y / y.In line with expectations, we then saw the rise in the unemployment rate from December to January's 13.4% 14.2%. In Hungary we were on the one hand, witnessed a further decline in business confidence (in February), while slightly increased consumer confidence (which, however, is extremely low). February business opinion survey, we then waited from Czech Republic.

Overall confidence in the Czech economy in February increased due to growth in both components - growth experienced business and consumer confidence. Respondents from the industrial sector even for the next three months expect a slight increase in production activity and employment. Nothing, however, change the fact that the overall business confidence is below last year's level, reflecting the fact that the recession in the euro area at the end of last year deepened.This consumer confidence is even higher yoy and indicates that the long-subdued demand could begin to gradually strengthen. In our forecasts, we expect to improve from the middle of the year, to dissipate the impact of the current wave of fiscal consolidation.

In the absence of domestic factors will kurzotvorných exchange rate in the coming days to monitor primarily external factors - the euro, the dollar and the market in general, the attitude of investors to risk after the Italian parliamentary elections. The current exchange rate levels around 25.50 CZK / EUR correspond CNB forecast for the first quarter.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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