Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  March 11, 2013 08:09:00

The improving U.S. labor market helped the dollar


Euro against the dollar at the end of the week fell below 1.3000 USD / EUR. While most of the week, the course held just above this level, and the second half was even attacked by level 1.3100 USD / EUR, during Friday's American session rate fell to almost 1.2950 USD / EUR.

Last week indicated that apparently changing the nature of the behavior of the U.S. dollar. The one in the past, primarily reflecting investors' degree of risk aversion and reacted rather positively to negative data. Lately we are seeing a positive correlation between the dollar exchange rate and U.S. macroeconomic indicators. At the end of the week the dollar appreciated unexpectedly favorable report from the labor market. During February, created 236,000 new jobs, which significantly exceeded market expectations.Unexpectedly decreased and the unemployment rate, from 7.9% in January to 7.7% in February and gained the lowest value in the last four years. On the contrary, the euro did not help much that the January industrial production in Germany stagnated mom only when the market waited for about half a percent growth.

Beginning of the week will bring major European data. From Germany the next morning we see the January trade balance. Economists expect total SG decent growth dynamics of German exports in January. Unfortunately, expectations for the January industrial production in France has not so optimistic. Expected to decline further. Even more during the week notified date would not have sounded too optimistic.The final number of German inflation in February, which will be published tomorrow, should be confirmed at 1.8% y / y, which means the absence of inflationary pressures and increasing leeway for ECB (the possibility that the ECB has room to loosen its policy rate cuts highlighted IMF chief Lagarde). On the contrary, the United States in the second half of the week we will see other encouraging indicators. The strong data from the February labor market should establish statistics of retail sales (in the middle) and industrial production (on Friday) and of course, Thursday's report on the number of new applicants for unemployment benefits last week.

Conclusion week will bring important political events. Thursday and Friday will be the sign of the EU summit, where, however, do not expect a radical shift, even if the apparent effort that fiscal consolidation carried out with regard to the impact on economic growth.The need for structural reforms remains obvious. The second event is the fact that on Friday, will meet the newly elected Italian legislators. Italian President should appoint the prime minister, who will try to form a government. Given the election result, however, is almost superhuman performance. A political uncertainty is reflected also in the financial markets.

And for this week we see a good chance that the U.S. dollar will seek to consolidate their position and will fight for the final level break $ 1.3000 / €. This would be useful if the rate fell below the 1.2950 USD / EUR, where the dealer according to the information set stop-loss orders, whose implementation could support the trend of strengthening the dollar. From a fundamental point of view, of course, the U.S. currency on expectations of record decent economic data discussed above.On the contrary, the eurozone remains in captivity recession and overall increase political uncertainty.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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