Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  March 11, 2013 09:18:59

CR - revision of GDP increased r.2012 decline to 1.2%


Revision of GDP for 4Q and full year 2012 annual balance deteriorated slightly compared to pre-notified information. GDP for 2012, adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects under review decreased by 1.2% compared to a decline of 1.1% in the preliminary estimate.

Gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for price changes and seasonality * / decreased in 2012, according to an updated estimate of 1.2%. The preliminary estimate for fourth quarter, published 14th February (decrease of 1.7% year on year and 0.2% compared to the third quarter) remained unchanged. Development of GDP in each quarter of 2012 is shown in the table.

Gross domestic product, constant prices, annual and quarterly changes in 2012 in%
Tab. Gross domestic product, constant prices, annual and quarterly changes in 2012 in%

GDP in 2012 declined in all quarters, both year on year and the quarter, the economic recession during the year by a slightly deepened. The main cause of unfavorable development was declining domestic demand as households for goods and services for final consumption and fixed capital investors. Foreign trade was no longer able, through increasing trade surplus, the development of domestic demand to compensate.
At current prices, the last year in the domestic economy created GDP is put at 3844 billion CZK, which was only 0.1% more than in 2011.
GDP deflator expressing the change in the aggregate price level rose by 1.3%.
Total employment in the national accounts, including employees and self-employed persons increased compared with the previous year, on average, by 0.4% to 5,092 thousand people. Self-employed persons increased 21,000 to 956,000, the average number of employees (4 136 000) is almost unchanged. Hours worked, however, was by 1.2% less hours.

Development of demand

The drop in domestic demand was mainly due to household spending, which is an annual sum decreased at constant prices by 3.5%. But households issued less than a year ago, even in current prices (+1.3%). Lower consumer interest prevented even relatively favorable deflator, which gradually declined year on year from 2.7% in the first quarter to 1.7% in the last quarter.Fell considerably last year particularly interested in consumer durables (cars, furniture), but also reduce costs for food, non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages, for maintenance and repair of housing, insurance and other goods and services.

Gross fixed capital formation in 2012 decreased by 1.6% mainly due to the negative developments in the 2nd half of the year significantly decreased investments in transport and buildings, even though the prices of these commodities fell below the level of the previous year.

The only component of demand, which had all of last year after a positive effect on GDP, was foreign trade. Annual increase in goods exports for the full year 2012 by 4.2% (compared to import growth of 1.2%) partially offset the decline in domestic demand.In the last quarter, however, this growth-promoting feed due to the decline in foreign demand has almost exhausted. The terms of trade were negative throughout the year, import prices rose by an average of 0.7 percentage points more than export prices.

Menu development

The creation of gross value added sector contributed differentially. Other significant decline, down 6.3% recorded last year of construction, which is difficult to contract terms with the lack of private and public sector. Agriculture for change faced difficult weather conditions which have negatively influenced the creation of gross value added at constant prices. Volume, the most important industry achieve an annual basis similar results as the year before. Varied considerably, however, the development of individual quarters.While in the first manufacturing industry generated 3.4% yoy higher added value, in the last quarter fell by the same percentage for the results of the fourth quarter of 2011. This result reflects mainly loss of production vehicles in the second half and a fall in foreign demand. Below average compared to the previous year has seen significant volume of food production as well.

Taxes on products declined in constant prices in total by 2.1% mainly due to the volume, the most important item of value added tax. On the contrary, he was strongly positive in the last quarter development of excise duty on tobacco products, which resulted in a very significant frontloading of producers associated with this change in tax rates.

***

Czech Statistical Office indicates that 30 April now publish the results of ongoing work on the preparation of the updated version of the annual national accounts 2010 and 2011, which are processed using the annual statistical survey in combination with administrative data sources. In the same period will be published in the corresponding time series of quarterly accounts.

Source: CSO
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