Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  March 14, 2013 16:04:00

Crown on Thursday without significant changes


After the morning strengthen to the level of 25.56 CZK / EUR Czech koruna gradually losing their profits and in the afternoon on the interbank market trading around the level of 25.63 CZK / EUR. As a result, the Czech currency was flat during the day. Morning gains occurred probably due to positive numbers from retail.

Czech retail sales in January fell year on year by 0.5% and thus did not meet our pessimistic estimate of -4.5% y / y (market -0.8%). In a monthly comparison of seasonal retail sales actually rose by 0.4%. The annual look at the structure shows that the decline is primarily signed sale and repair of motor vehicles with a negative 1.0 percentage point increase and fuel (-0.2 pp).Sales of non-food goods then largely decrease these product groups and services slowed down as positively contributed 0.7 percentage points. Food sales were flat. Despite the relatively decent data is still very premature to talk about the signs of future improvement. We do not expect the households have started venturing into stronger spending. For the full year we expect a decrease of 0.8%.

The current account balance of the Czech Republic in January resulted in a surplus of CZK 6 billion, which thus fell slightly short of expectations market (10 billion CZK). In comparison with our pessimistic estimate (CZK 2.7 billion), the biggest surprise concentrated in current transfers. The trade balance in January ended in a surplus of 7.6 billion CZK. Worsening by we noticed even balance of services.Balance of income turned out very much like last year with a deficit of 7.5 billion CZK. Capital outflow on the financial account amounted to CZK 24.7 billion, mainly due to a negative balance of foreign direct investment (-49.2 bn CZK). Positive trends in the current account deficit should continue this year.

Polish zloty recorded losses today and in the afternoon trading at around 4.15 PLN / EUR. Polish currency and probably reacted to the publication of consumer price statistics. According to the February inflation decelerated from 1.5% y / y to 1.3% y / y. The Hungarian forint weakened morning to 306.4 HUF / EUR in the day erased their losses and at the end of trading held 305 HUF / EUR

Tomorrow will be published in Czech industrial production for January, for which we expect a decrease of 4.5% y / y (market -4.2%) and the February producer price index, which is expected to grow at 1.5% y / y (market 1.5%).

Czech swap curve is now increased by 1 bp along its entire length.


Author: Jana Malíčková

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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