Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  March 15, 2013 09:14:00

Industrial production in January declined in real terms by 4.1%.


January result Czech industrial production definitely enthused. Entering the new year was not spectacular, basically Czech industry continued to poor results at the end of last year. While weak domestic demand, the Czech industry has been living for many quarters, the deepening recession in the euro area at the end of last year, including a decline in the German activities of the Czech industry numbers starting to show now. And unfortunately for us gets into trouble the automobile industry, which was confirmed in January Czech data. The decline in industrial production in the manufacturing of motor vehicles at -8.6% y / y meant strongest contribution (-1.5 of a percentage point) to the overall decline in the January industries. The automotive industry difficulties, however, attaches and other related industries.Registered a decline in rubber production and wage goods (-6.1% y / y), and decreased the production and distribution of electricity, gas and heat (-3.3% y / y).

The outlook for the coming months is not favorable, mainly due to the global automotive industry problems. From the Czech point of view it is especially alarming downward trend car registrations in Germany and the EMU as a whole. The Czech foreign balance of the car it does not show too much yet, but eventually some deterioration to occur. Some compensation may be forward-looking indicators of German industry suggest improving the situation, but in the real German data it has not characteristic.

Overall, we expect that the Czech industrial production for the entire first quarter decline of 0.2% QoQ (SA, WDA), from the second quarter, we expect the beginning of a cyclical recovery. This should help the weaker koruna against the euro, which helps our exporters. In annual terms it should have industry experience a decline of 1.9% y / y last year after a decrease of 1.2%.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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