Research (Česká spořitelna)
Currencies  |  March 21, 2013 10:48:03

Poland: two months to improve and then they will cutovat, yields at historic lows

Polish CB banker Bratkowski yesterday reiterated his statement Monday. He said that if the data in the next two months, worse, be room for further rate cut, possibly in May or June. Bratkowski also said he is a pessimist and it is not clear that growth should accelerate in 2H13. But we are waiting for the stabilization of the economy, making room for another cut seen. Cathy yesterday declined 25.75, nothing concrete has happened, (Hampl et al. Conversely speaking, that interventions are not yet needed) according to our info to the order from the other side of the Atlantic.

Polish yields partly under the influence of that part of the market expects further rate cuts (and Bratkowski, as we have seen, is not convinced to the contrary) in yesterday's auction fell to a historic low - 07/2015 bond was sold at 3.17%, 04 / 18 of 3.43%. This indicates a very strong interest in the Polish debt - and / or the desperate investors looking for at least some income. Not surprisingly, the Polish MinFin sold PLN 8.1 billion, more than originally estimated 4-6 billion Given that yields are still relatively high (compared to Germany / Czech Republic) and the rates of Polish CB can still down ( although in our main scenario we do not expect), can not be excluded a further slight decline, but we likely to see a stabilization.
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