Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  March 25, 2013 08:17:00

Euro apparently corrected, but the longer-term trend that does not yet


Last week dominated by events in global financial markets, the situation in Cyprus, whose banking system got into huge problems and has to rely on help eurozone. On Friday, entering markets report that Cyprus with Greece has agreed to take over the division of the Greek Cypriot Greek bank financial institutions. On the contrary, negotiations with Russia ended in failure, the Cypriot Minister of Finance failed to agree on easing of repayment of existing debt of $ 2.5 billion. Minister nor convince Russian companies to invest in the Cypriot economy, and Russian banks have refused to participate in the rehabilitation of the local financial institutions. The Russians have no interest nor the natural gas reserves in Cyprus' shores. Over the weekend, representatives of the Eurogroup and Cyprus agreed to a restructuring of banks. The second largest Cypriot Bank (Laiki) will be divided into healthy and bad part.Taxation deposit will eventually relate only to the volume of over 100 thousand. EUR in this context, the State could thus get 4.2 billion euros. The remaining amount of the required amount of EUR 5.8 billion, which the island nation to get to get a cash injection of € 10 billion, then should přitéct through revenues from privatization and tax increases on capital gains and corporate income. Anyway, now it seems that the credit line from the ECB, through which flows into the Cypriot banking sector funding, will remain open. If the negotiations will end successfully and quickly, the first rescue funds could come to the island in May.

Euro as from Friday, gradually erasing its previous losses against the dollar and betrayed by about one cent. In today's morning trading at levels close to 1.30 USD / EUR.It seems that the worst is hopefully averted Cyprus, of which, the common European currency a modest profit. But you can not expect a massive opening long euro positions on, there remain significant risks. In addition, the economic picture is definitely pink. While in the past few months gave him some hope for leading indicators, which lepšily from month to month, last week came as a disappointment European PMI index and the German Ifo index. Real data is then still in the weak levels.

The situation on the other side of the Atlantic is definitely optimistic. Data from the United States show the improvement in the real estate sector, labor market and industrial production. During this week, should be published favorable data on long-term orders or prices of real estate.

Apart from macroeconomic calendar and Cypriot situation and development will be important in Italy, where he was Pier Luigi Bersani as the winner of the February elections charged with forming a government. Although Bersani try to form a government, not because of the results no easy task. Likelihood of early elections remains relatively high, and if not for government, would probably be held in September.

This constellation of economic and political events should rather record the dollar. Although the beginning of the week we can not exclude a certain correction of euro losses should definitely be a long-term trend.


Author: Miroslav Frayer

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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Euro zřejmě zkoriguje, ale na dlouhodobější trend to zatím nevypadá

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