Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Markets  |  March 25, 2013 14:12:40

Ifo: Growth slows in Germany


Mads Koefoed, chief macroeconomic strategist, Saxo Bank .

First things first: The German Ifo business climate index fell in March to 106.7 points. The decline came mainly because of lower expectations, which were no doubt strongly influenced by the increased uncertainty in the eurozone, which are implicated in Italian elections and events in Cyprus .

podnikatelske klima Ifo: Růst v Německu zpomaluje

Chart: Business climate business climate, current assessment Current evaluation expectations Expectations

Details:The German economy continues to recover from the sharp decline in activity. The 4th quarter of 2012 was, according to the Ifo index of 0.6 percent qoq. Business climate, however, declined in March from February, 107.4 to 106.7 points. It is the first decline in five months.

The decline came mainly because of lower expectations, which decreased by a point from 104.6 to 103.6. Folder expectations were also responsible for the decline in the Ifo in the second half of 2012. German managers from the business sector was difficult to face a combination of uncertainty in the eurozone, hanging in the air, such as the potential requirement to rescue Spain and weak global trade. It turned out in the report on GDP for the last quarter of 2012. Exports declined qoq by 2 percent and became the main reason for the sharp decline slightly by 0.6 percent of GDP.

Since 2010, the existing evaluation index greater than the index of expectations. So it was in March. Unlike the fourth quarter of 2012, the existing evaluation index provided a better picture of the German economy, which grew older in the third quarter by 0.2 percent, despite the accumulated fears of recession. This shows that the expectations index is probably too much influenced by the uncertainty in the euro area and, therefore, in the second half of 2012 overtook decline in GDP. The domestic economy is still strong.

hdp Ifo: Růst v Německu zpomaluje

This year we expect the German economy will thrive more than other large economies in the eurozone.GDP growth is estimated at just under 1 percent *. Not only because of exports and domestic consumption. Households are in good shape, unemployment is near record day, and wages are rising and the real basis, adjusted for inflation. All this will help GDP. Unlike most eurozone Germany was forced to big cuts. The government was able to balance the budget two years ahead, thanks to rising tax revenues. Therefore, public consumption will also increase, which will contribute to growth.

* This is partly due to the weak base effect, when in the fourth quarter of 2012 there was a sharp decline in GDP. Growth will be stronger on quarterly basis, to the one shown annual growth of just under 1 percent.

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