TRIMBROKER (TRIMBROKER)
Markets  |  March 25, 2013 14:11:13

Cyprian verdict: Greek Way


iPoint.cz Just as had been expected, the agreement on Cypre fell again over the weekend and now the market had more reasons to rejoice. Controlled manner will be laid Cyprus Popular Bank, a market good match and it will take over the assets of the Bank of Cyprus. Bad bad assets will go to the bank, where their possible after time somebody buys. A key is the fact that this solution is approaching to normal bankruptcy, whereby the loss lies with shareholders, creditors and depositors of guaranteed € 100 thousand.

The whole process does not have to approve the Cyprian parliament (not incidentally, would not approve it, so that's calling the toll but somehow otherwise). The EU pledged € 10 billion, it is expected that the parliaments of other member countries would be approved.Pay their share behold Cyprus, more specifically its two largest banks. Cyprus Popular Bank will bear the loss, the bank has € 8.7 billion in deposits, of which will be paid € 4.8 billion in losses (of those which are above € 100 thousand).. Then it looks for the total loss of all who have no deposits to € 100 thousand. Good assets transferring to the Bank of Cyprus, where the bottom line suffers biggest depositors stratum 30 40%, which should, together with the Cyprus Popular Bank put together a package of necessary cyperského share of the rescue. The future shareholders and owners of the Bank of Cyprus will still have the cost of the recapitalization of its banks. Terajšia Bank of Cyprus has deposits in a volume of € 18.2, he shall take you and that approximately half of the nepoistených, we have a € 9 billion, 30% haircut will provide € 3 billion, along with Cyprus Cyprus Popular Bank thus obtained over € 7 billion , the remaining EU gives € 10 and together we receive € 17 billion packageWhich initially has applied Cyprus. The numbers may still be slightly alter, but this will be the principle. Germany is satisfied, before voters can be said that tax the black money, loss zatiahnu shareholders and EU provided only less than 60% of the required package, the rest pay Cyprus.

On the graph below to see the development of development on its black gold, blue and orange in the euro on U.S. promotions. Gold a while ago for a few hours completely erased gains for the past week and it trades where it was before Cyprom, well 1590th Euro attempted to dismiss cyperský gap, but could not. Shares they go up and they are compared to the situation predcyperskej slightly higher. Euphoria long nevydržala.

Euro neudržalo today's gains, the reasons may be several. Italy's auction did not go very famous, especially the unpleasant growth yields on the short end. In addition, the Moodys were properly indicated that after the financial crisis will come Cypre economic crisis. If 82% of the economy accounted Cyprus service is questionable, what happens to the economy when Cyprus will be unable to provide the services of a tax paradise and occasional washing money. Reforms cyperského economic model will bring higher unemployment and higher deficits in public finances. Many Cypriots will no longer be able to sit on coffee and confess fees for tax advice and services, but will need to make something real. The inflow of money very quickly can change to a drain. When the Soviet Union disintegrated early 90th Years, Russia oligarchovia considered, nowhere to hide your money.Cypre The weather was nice and nobody is nepýtal the origin of money. One third deposit at Cypre so was of Russian origin (over € 20 billion). When the Cyprus problem had already in 2011, the Russians provided € 2.5 billion in costs were still lower than it would cost zoficiálenie of the money. However Cyprus soon claimed a further € 2 billion on Cypre but had the money not just billionaires, but also Russian companies, companies that wanted to be in business in Russia and the Russian State authorities. Tie now lose part of their money, while will need to also change the business model (you probably will not have a fancy move the money through internet in Cyprus, pay local to the company could be located and save up to ten percent of the taxes). Nečudo that Putin called this operation theft.

The problem would have so could not just Cyprus (from the financial crisis toward economic) but also Russia (companies losing money, maybe insolvencia and the loss of part of the foreign investment that Prudil via Cyprus).

So even this may be the reason why market sentiment begins cooling. After the large euphoria comes disillusionment. The market comes after a panic eurórii Medvedia mood. Politically, it won Germany, Russia and Cyprus hromží could be prepared to "cure Greece of" reform. Assumptions later he has, and gets "help" at the rate of € 10 billion and will grow to Greek debt level (120-130% of GDP) and the walk begins Threesome visits. First estimates of the economic downturn, say by 20%, which is also comparable with Greece. And politicians (the opposition of course) started to talk about leaving the euro zone, but it may be too late, as the "help" you got.But mainly, we have the euro symbol of solidarity, as Eurocrats Mersch said the ECB.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker


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