Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  March 28, 2013 07:28:00

Euro at the bottom of almost five months


The common European currency yesterday all failed. Rate USD / EUR now began to fall with the start of the European session. It is still located at 1.2850. At the turn of European and American trading course has already found a whole penny below. Thus, the weak, the euro against the dollar since the mid-November last year.

While the dollar benefited from a strong macroeconomic data, the eurozone still can not get out of recession and the current uncertainty of dealing with the situation in Cyprus further clouded prospects only. Markets are worried about possible infection of weaker eurozone states Cypriot disease. The inability of European leaders to mark the Cypriot unique solutions for investors nervous. We saw in yesterday's auction of Italian government bonds.They signed to the highest yields since October last year, despite a Tuesday night published report from the International Monetary Fund that the Italian banking sector is well capitalized. However, according to the IMF still faces risks due to the recession and lengthy exposure to peripheral debt. In yesterday's losses and the uncertainty of the euro against the dollar was also uncertainty about how Cyprus can handle the introduction of measures to restrict the movement of capital before the Cypriot banks are now open.

A key event is the opening day of Cypriot banks, if it really happens. The markets will be crucial if we manage to prevent a run on Cypriot banks. According to recent information, is there a limit on the daily selection of EUR 300 and will be applied restrictions on transfer of funds abroad.In addition, today will be published a number of interesting economic indicator. From Germany we should wait for the next positive numbers from the labor market, in terms of reducing the number of unemployed Germans in March. Unfortunately, other European indicators have not so positive. We are afraid of further reducing the growth dynamics of money supply M3 for the euro area (in February) and a further reduction of the Italian economic and business confidence (in March). The afternoon will see the U.S. final GDP data for Q4 12 and weekly statistics on the number of new applicants applying for unemployment benefits. The number should be safely below 400 000 and confirm the positive trends in the U.S. labor market.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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