World markets  |  March 28, 2013 20:42:22

Help Cyprus capital controls? / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: from the 25th week Third 2,013


Cyprus opens after nearly two weeks of their bank. But it is not without drastic restrictions. The island will pay hard capital controls, people will be able to choose only 300 euros a day and the country in banknotes will not get more than 3000 euro. But can they tough capital controls something paltry prospects Cyprus change?

In theory, capital controls should only take a couple of weeks until the situation calmed down and let up the pressure on the massive outflow of deposits. Realistically speaking, but that moment never arises. Stretching controls probably eagerness savers "quickly collect money and disappear" just encourage you. At the same time it may also damage the remaining healthy part of the Cypriot economy.Without a smooth payment system can not work well Cypriot ports as well as travel agencies and their clients may prefer to give priority to one of the nearby Greek islands, where they will operate ATMs. The introduction of capital controls in the euro area is also questionable from a legal point of view and can get the Cypriot Central Bank to unpleasant litigation.

So what's next? Cyprus has no choice but capital controls as quickly as possible to relax. At the same time but I will have to confiscate more large deposits of € 100,000 to the surviving remnants of the local banking system were able to drain money from the country to cover. This offers a question whether at this moment Cyprus eventually paid leave the eurozone. The main argument against euro exit is usually the financial crisis and the destruction of the value of deposits in banks. The longer the Cyprus anyway occurs.The Cypriot economy is also day-to-day losing an important pillar of its growth. Needs quickly and cheaper to turn to other sectors than finance. Devaluation could help dear island. Such a move could paradoxically more wrinkles on the forehead rest euroklubu tag - the cost of insulation Cyprus as výjmečného case would begin to grow.

Jan Bures, ERA PSB

Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, a week from 25 Third 2013th


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
22nd Third
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
980.61
970.40
970
ˇ -1.04
950-990
1
4
Dow Jones (U.S.)
14 512,03
14 510,40
14500
ˇ -0.01
14400 - 14671
2
3
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 245,00
3 228,20
3,240
ˇ -0.52
3 150 - 3288
2
3
FTSE 100 (UK)
6 392,80
6 387,40
6,420
ˇ -0.08
6300 - 6466
3
2
DAX (Germany)
7 911,35
7 878,80
7,888
ˇ -0.41
7800 - 7956
1
4
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
12 338,53
12 436,00
12350
^ 0.79
12300 - 12772
3
2


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
11th Third
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
980.61
1 007,20
1,005
^ 2.71
981 - 1 050
5
0
Dow Jones (U.S.)
14 512,03
14 737,40
14961
^ 1.55
14100 - 15026
4
1
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 245,00
3 313,20
3,353
^ 2.10
3 100 - 3383
4
1
FTSE 100 (UK)
6 392,80
6 468,80
6,594
^1.19
6090 - 6650
4
1
DAX (Germany)
7 911,35
8 042,00
8,100
^ 1.65
7670 - 8200
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
12 338,53
12 795,60
12828
^ 3.70
11 850 - 13 800
4
1

Rating this week performed:

  • Martin Rucki - CYRRUS
  • Hana Hradilová, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success."Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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Pomohou Kypru kapitálové kontroly? / BIG EXPERT - zahraniční trhy: týden od 25. 3. 2013

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