Macro outlook for the 15th week - very poor week, significant data on Friday
This week will be very poor in terms of data - in the USA will be on Friday retail sales and PPI. After a weak labor market data and a decline in consumer confidence will be a lot of waiting mainly on retail sales. Expectations are cautious (stagnation). In Europe, popular German industrial production. After the better ordering in the industry, the market will live in hope that it could surprise on the upside, too. Published record of the FOMC meeting. Several previous sparked fears of a possible phasing out of quantitative easing with a relatively strong market response. He speaks a number of factors Fed's Bernanke twice. In Europe, will monitor developments in Portugal, where the Constitutional Court rather complicated situation the government.
In the CEE region, the most important meeting of the Polish central bank and industrial production in the country. The Polish centrbanky do not expect further rate change after the last surprise cut of 50 basis points CB will wait on how the situation develops in EMU and what impact did the previous release to the economy. In the Czech Republic we expect industrial production for February, which should further m / m increase (PMI points to it) and kydž headline number will be due to basis effects and due to the lower number of working days this year is negative. The balance of trade in the Czech Republic confirms the high surplus of imports over výzozem, inflation remains unchanged compared to February and zpohledu CNB and nothing changes.
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