Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  April 09, 2013 15:12:00

Domestic data surprised the markets


At the Central European foreign exchange markets during today's session there was total quiet mood. Slightly today weakened the Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint, the two currencies by about one-third percent. During the first hour of today's session had a tendency to slightly lose and Czech koruna. After most of the day, the exchange rate on the interbank market held in a narrow range of less than five cents around 25.75 CZK / EUR. It was only in the late afternoon, we have witnessed a tendency to weaken and testing levels 25.80 CZK / EUR.

Today released macroeconomic data no pulse domestic market yielded. The share of the unemployed in complete accordance with expectations dropped from February's 8.1% to 8.0% in March. Without any surprise, i ended March inflation. In line with the market consensus prices rose by 0.1% m / m, which meant stagnation annual inflation at 1.7% y / y.

However, the data confirmed that the Czech economy is still struggling with the recession. Although at first glance appear to figures from the labor market positively, we must realize that they are biased positive seasonality, as of March traditionally we are witnessing the creation of seasonal jobs. After adjusting for seasonality, we get the opposite conclusion - the unemployment rate increases. The recession is tantamount to loss of jobs. A related weak consumer demand is then reflected in the development of inflation. Yoy core inflation was below the 0.4% y / y. compared with the CNB forecast is lower headline inflation by 0.3 percentage points. It is thus a combination of other anti-inflationary factors should therefore balance the weak domestic currency. Domestic fundamentals and definitely the reason for the strengthening of the Czech currency are not.On the contrary, in the light of these developments for the coming days likely re-testing technical resistance around 25.90 CZK / EUR.

From a fundamental point of view already tomorrow too interesting not going home with any new economic indicators confess. From the perspective of the zloty will undoubtedly interesting outcome of central bankers. At the last meeting there was a surprisingly sharp drop of 50 basis points and considering that this is the end of the cycle. So we'll see how central bankers at intervals of months this step is evaluated. From Hungary then we will see the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the central bank.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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