Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  April 11, 2013 09:58:52

China - the volume of new loans and money supply bžřeznu outperform market expectations


According to the Chinese People's Bank of China volume of new loans in domestic currency in March reached 1.06 trillion yuan = approx 171 mld.USD in February compared to 620 billion yuan compared with market expectations and set to grow to about 900 billion yuan.
Aggregated data on lending outside the banking sector show the total volume of new loans up to 2.54 trillion yuan, which greatly exceeds the estimated 1.8 trillion market.
1Q aggregate volume of new loans grew by 58% year on year to 6.16 trillion yuan. The volume of bank loans grew by 12% year on year to 2.76 trillion, the highest since Q1 2009th

Indicator of money supply M2 in March grew by 15.7% compared with 14.6% market expected. Government objectives, this indicator to 13%.

The data presented are somewhat double-edged, because on the one hand, it implies recovery of the Chinese economy from the worst downturn in 13 years, and on the other hand increase the financial risks and the pressure to further tighten the stimulus taps. The Chinese government has recently sought to limit the too rapid development of bank and non-bank lending in the country due to the increased risk of jump in the proportion of bad loans and for trying to prevent the emergence of price bubbles in some sectors.

It is estimated that the total debt, including various forms of so-called gray banking at the end of the level reached 198% of GDP, compared to about 125% 4 years ago.

According to a Bloomberg survey of China's GDP in 1Q accelerated to 8procentní growth compared to 7.9% in 4Q12.

China's foreign exchange reserves in March grew by another 13 mld.USD the resulting 3.44 trillion. Market counted only moderate growth to 3.36 trillion.
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