Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Commodities  |  12.4.2013 15:53:00

Crown near the weakest level in almost a year and a half


Czech koruna at the end of the week flirting with the level of 25.90 CZK / EUR and not drastically not completely renounced its weakest level since November 2011. Course throughout the day Friday held just below the surface in the range between 25.84 to 25.90 CZK / EUR. On the contrary, the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint today fast as before. While the Polish currency has gained about four tenths of one percent, Hungary by about two thirds.

The whole week expressing koruna has lost more than two thirds percent. While the first half of the week, the course still found at 25.70 CZK / EUR, Thursday briefly broke through 25.90, while attacking 25.95 CZK / EUR. The weakness of the domestic currency justify adverse macroeconomic indicators that point to the accumulation of downside risk. Depreciation rate is but compensates. In a similar spirit in the week expressed CNB Vice-Governor M. Hampl.According to him, all risks in the Czech economy has shown anti-inflationary. Hampl mentioned in particular the disappointment of the dynamics of foreign trade, while February's exports declined by 3.6% y / y, imports were lower by 4.4% y / y, reflecting weak domestic and foreign demand weakening. Similarly sounded as other published figures. February's industrial production was up by 5.7% lower. Although the unemployment rate in March fell to 8.0% from February's 8.1%. However, solely due to seasonal factors. After seasonal adjustment has increased. A major downside factor is the current inflation. The March annual inflation was flat at 1.7% in February and found that the 0.3 percentage point below the CNB forecast. Adjusted inflation measuring demand-pull inflationary pressures, according to our calculations, was negative at 0.4% y / y.

From a technical point of view represents a level of 25.90 CZK / EUR critical level. As discussed above, the fundamentals and the fact that the exchange rate from the level at the end of the week too neodpoutal increases for the next week likelihood that the exchange rate will continue to try to test it. In the case of negotiation, the next major resistance level represented a level of 26.15 CZK / EUR. On the contrary, as the level of support this week appeared to level 25.70 CZK / EUR.

Introduction of next week will bring the latest in a series of macroeconomic indicators, which will be published in April. Industrial producer prices should be higher in March according to our estimates and market consensus of 0.1% m / m Oil prices in CZK terms should push prices down, mainly due to refined petroleum products.Opposite direction should cause prices in agriculture (with an impact on prices in the food industry) and weaker crown. Annual growth in producer prices should slow down in March from 1.3% in February to 1.1%. The CNB's view, however, will be more important agricultural prices, which have a stronger link to food prices in consumer inflation. Regarding the current account balance of payments, there expect a surplus of 3.2 billion CZK. Our estimate is slightly below the market consensus. However it must be noted that due to a better result the trade balance in the national methodology there is a chance for a positive surprise. Overall, however, none of the indicators discussed above are not among those that moved the financial markets.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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