Rastislav Trecák (G&S SOLUTIONS)
Investor's window  |  April 13, 2013 19:07:21

Black Friday, 12 April 2013


Even though yesterday was Friday Friday, the 13th, for futures trading gold and silver on COMEX other words for paper gold and silver will be written Friday, the 12th April as Black Friday. Despite all the current fundamentals of the real economy (recession and record unemployment in the EU, the constant increasing the already record public debt levels in the U.S., EU, ??Japan, China, etc, huge quantitative easing, or "printing money" in the U.S., EU and Japan, retail sales declines in the EU and the U.S. since the beginning of 2013), which in the past caused logically focus investors on the assets of the "safe harbor" in which after millenium include gold and silver on Friday unthinkable happened and troubling.

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In the afternoon Central European Time, by opening the COMEX exchange in the U.S., there was a total sale of gold and silver futures contracts, which lasted until the market closes. Gold lost 5.38% and silver even 6.54% against the previous day. Divergence paper market in gold and silver, and stock index Dow Jones once again intensified (see chart):

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But against the first large divergence in the summer of 2011 (gold top and the Dow Jones below) is today's 2nd large divergence opposite (Dow above and gold below). But why is it the opposite? For macroeconomic data and political prerequisites for such a state are now in 2011 against either the same or worse. For example, in terms of U.S. politics, well before we act to increase the deficit ceiling of $ 16.75 trillion in the summer 2011 and then, even now it does not seem that the Democrats and repulikáni now agree. U.S. waits reduction in government spending by 85 billion, because it was not extended a special law on subsidies and tax credits, which have adopted the Bush administration. Economic analysts estimate that this reduction in government spending may cause a drop in GDP of up to 1.5%.


In terms of the macroeconomic indicators, GDP growth in the U.S. in Q3 2011 was approximately 1.3% (source: CNN), while in Q4 2012 was only 0.4% (source: CNN). And yet after the March decline in retail sales in the U.S. does not seem to GDP growth in Q1 2013 jumped to a staggering number (exact values ??have not yet been published), but rather GDP is expected to stagnate. When we look at how cost the EU economy in 2011, as it stands today, also do not see any optimism. China's economy is slowing, Japan struggles with brutal quantitative easing inflation and GDP growth do not expect nor there. A gold in Japan at historic highs.

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What a mysterious wizard Voldemort, pushing up shares and commodity money, oil and industrial metals down? After all, we can not talk about it at the same timeThat we have a recovery (I really do not see it) and when it falls to us the price of oil and silver, the two most used industrial raw materials down. Can anyone explain this? If so, contact me, please email to rastislav.trecak @ gs-solutions.cz.


Because I'm being impatient, even before I explain to someone robust, I will share with you and I on my "humble" opinion to me illogical events that are now happening in the financial markets.

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I discovered Voldemort's Ben Bernanke. Yes, it's him, Helicopter Ben. He is now the architect of this equity madness, the (non) bubble in the stock market and panic in commodity markets. That prosperity, which is mentioned in every economic analyst mainstrem media, but no one outside her Wall Street, the City, the giant glass offices of banks and hedge funds and central politicians in Washington, Brussels and Tokyo, just could not see. It would be nice if they had the budocí prosperity and economic growth have shown, because Ben can be anabolic steroids, which feeds the stock markets. And then it will not be a pretty sight to shares dependent on the doping Fed to fall and collapse. Although basically when there is no gold standard, Ben can print to infinity, for price inflation in the U.S. is almost imperceptible.

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But what if you like some "speculators" from a strange club called BRICs decide to no longer to use its international trading USD? It would be quite large complications. It would probably have an impact on price inflation in the U.S..Now that U.S. exports Salvatore in the world, there is no internal price inflation. But he is no longer able to export, they can stay at home and dicing great mischief. Raise prices and confidence in the USD will be gone.


Maintain confidence in the current system of fiat money inflation is the main motive for the manipulation of the financial markets (LIBOR, precious metals, oil, interest rates on bonds) as well as the weakening positions of most competing assets as a litmus test for evaluation of specific fiat currencies. Balances of all major central banks to greatly magnified by 2011, producing trillions of USD, EUR, Jen-s, Juan-s.And the prices of some of the actual, physical, quantity limited assets that are denominated in the fiat currencies are falling constantly. A share price of many companies, companies that are doing in terms of financial indicators such as P / E clearly worse than in 2011, continued to rise. Doping Fed and other central banks still works, the question is, when do.


I will not give any investment recommendations, feel free to buy shares and to bear in mind for a while on a wave of optimism and divergence against commodities, or buy a commodity money, gold and silver, the price is now at levels of early 2011 and the total current global monetary base actually low, or buy a nice piece of land with woods and fields somewhere in the Highlands.However, I recommend unequivocally portfolio diversification, not having all the money only in banks (Cyprus) or only in cených paper, but also in physical assets. Although it does not now seem soon the situation will change and the reality of the world catches up virtuality financial markets. And then it will mazec.

 

Ing. Rastislav Trecák

vystudoval Univerzitu Mateja Bela v Banské Bystrici. Po škole pracoval jako obchodní manažer v petrolejářské branži a mimo jiné zabezpečoval i finanční hedging ropných produktů. Od roku 2010 začal působit jako poradce a zprostředkovatel služeb spojených s finančním zabezpečením fyzických obchodů s komoditami a od roku 2012, kdy založil společnost G&S Solutions, se věnuje informačně-edukační a obchodní činnosti v oblasti investic a spoření.

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