TRIMBROKER (TRIMBROKER)
Markets  |  16.4.2013 12:35:22

Commodity waterfall


iPoint.cz If there is something worth attention last few days so it's definitely a bulk sale of commodities. In the last five days, the silver in a decrease of more than 13% and gold 12%. Worse, it looks When viewing only development for Friday and Monday. There is a 15% decrease in gold and 20% silver. Something we have not seen a very long time and it is already clear that the Byco trends on gold (on silver has long been not) will discuss it only in previous time. At least in the next period. Decreased significantly even crude, Brent, after several months under 100 USD (the last time it happened in the summer of last year) and the American oil is to change the 90 USD (we are the lowest inin last autumn). It would be the decrease in grain odolávajú. But it is a mistake Scale, and the return to the end of March to the inventory data, we also would have found nice overflow. For example, in maize by 14% in two days.

Obtrude A popular question headlinových commentators Why dissembled commodities? A new era? And yet all this so quickly and concrete and fundamental overflow has caused this? The reality is again somewhat simpler, especially if our memory goes back at least a couple of weeks back. Reasons, it is enough. Len is ignored. Up to suddenly did not ignore. A fast and all at once dobiehali panicked and did what it should do dávnejšie. So let's look at the reasons for recent motion.

Precious metals. Capital is looking for either a shelter or recovery. Precious metals, especially gold, have served as a safe haven. Why? Well the first year since 2001 2006 we saw major intrinsic growth trend and wany USD. Since 2007, we have seen the top of mania, test levels for 1000 USD uncu, crisis, starting monetárnych incentives, which should start up inflationary expectations, a significant decline in bond yields of high-quality general and weft to safety. The peak occurred in 2011, when it raged buying spree and the gold bulls are predbiehali in price goals. 2000 USD and 5000 USD, 10 000 USD ... infinity ... new era ... etc. In fact, the first sale came after the yearly adjustment parabolickom growth and consolidation. Went out in the fall of 2012 new settler unlimited Fed QE. New peak on gold did not come.The U.S. economy is doing so well as, inflation is at 3-yearly minimách, systemic risk today is not on the agenda of the day (although the solution of the crisis still have). The turning point came with the new maxims in actions (first reaction was a sharp fall in gold). There is clearly indicated that the risks are ancillary and capital desperately needs recovery. Shares are expensive, but yield have (not only dividends but also other forms of cash-back to shareholders). U.S. bonds offer a low yield (1.7%), but it is at least at the level of inflation. Who needs hold dear? When stocks were grown, gold declined, even without the endeavor of the U.S. dollar. All of these reasons for doing so were already known recent weeks. We're a month expected that gold retains Last year the bottom, but we changed the view for new maximách in actions. We were expecting that level test will come in 1540.And when these declines tempách this level could also be the reassignment, we talked to last week's Livetradingu. And in the next time, you can expect a correction in gold behold promotions (the Golden Mount, in actions below) and continue in their potvrdenom trend. Ted shares up, gold down. Who will not change things.

However, some commentators simply not change their opinion. People had to come to his opinion of the sentiment and, if you have to change, it is often excessively painful for them, and therefore they avoid it. As if to change the look meant defeat. When odôvodňovaní you will select only those arguments that im sedia, other nespomenú. So I will speak, that gold must go up because it is gold and when not growing, so it may as Goldman Sachs, Cyprus (sale of gold for € 400 million, Which is probably not take place anyway), handling (popular reason), bad technical level and others (as they call it) samovyplňajúce the prediction. We do not, that could be wrong. And it just happened that the gold bulls are not intend to fall in remit and had kept their positions. Once we have reached a new annual lows, rushed to unload gold. All at once. NYMEX has increased margin requirements to appease futures market.

Similar situation, we also saw the rope. The high and excessive inventories in the U.S. has been writing long. The fact that the market is oversupplied oil we've also been writing. But this must be added that data from China and they did have contributed to the sale. OPEC will have to proofread the situation of lower production. The best example is probably anyway corn.Since the beginning of the year (an expiration to the May contract) we were in a short position, because corn was relatively expensive and demand declined thereafter (which is prejavovalo weak export). For this reason, we expect growth stocks (their revision) and the subsequent drop in prices. However, corn traded sideways with occasional sharp snap up attempt. Why? Since all (Funds also a large part of producers) should still take that last year were dry, which reduced the inventory to a minimum and did halt the historical peaks in prices. This is all normal and rational. Lenz price rise comes after the effort of producers expect to earn as much as possible and sieve, which of course go up future supplies. And thus pushing prices down. This, however, ignores a large proportion of traders just bought, because they lead were dry.Well came and review inventory and came to the fact that stocks are about 8% higher because corn is expensive and demand low. This caused 14% drop in prices. Was suddenly panic.

How it works simply on the market. If someone next time you will ask what specifically caused the unexpected and fundamental bargain, he should have to answer the question of why it did not sell then, when there were clues and evidence of deterioration fundamentov, but only after you've sold the others.

Another candidate for the unexpected bargain? Natural gas. For two weeks we write that the fundamentals are beginning to deteriorate. Price? When their tops this year's. Learn more in our news.

Today's trading takes place in konsolidačnom tone yesterday's tragedy at Bostonskom marathon caused more sales of U.S. shares, which are collected and help maintain even German shares higher despite a weak ZEW informations with help. Precious metals are seeking their last Fall skorigovať, euro went up above German shares. Today We are waiting master data realitného American industry and market. On intradennom graph shows the present situation, čiernym are U.S. stocks have reached bottom at night (zakrúžkované), subsequently repelled even orange German stocks, growth stocks went up euro (blue), but this is not yet enough to greater reflection of gold (Shiva).

Author: Tomáš Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as |Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker


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