Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Currencies  |  April 18, 2013 11:21:32

The outlook for the major currencies - the dollar will be in 2Q winner in any development


The dollar will be in the second quarter of 2013 continued to flourish, with the future he does not cost anything
in the way. For the Japanese yen, we can expect a lot of wild ride.   The outlook for the euro is probably the least certain, but the pessimism in the price already reflected the single currency.

Macroeconomic conditions play heavily in favor of the dollar, which is in a position winner in any development. In the optimistic scenario, the dollar will rise due to the improving condition of the U.S. economy.   This would only increase expectations for Fed. He could start to tighten taps, for example by reducing the rates on securities backed by mortgage loans and purchase of government bonds for 85 billion U.S. dollars a month, which announced in December. Fed Chairman Bernanke himself suggested this scenario.   This would be the most important Fed became the first central bank moved to tighten.The dollar also plays into the hands of a great revival in the production of electricity, the ongoing reduction in the U.S. current account deficit and the return of production back to U.S. soil. Dark horse could be a return of U.S. corporate capital abroad back to the U.S. if the government can enforce repatriation scheme of the Act on national investment (Homeland Investment Act).

The dollar would help even pessimistic scenario

I would pessimistic scenario but the U.S. currency helped. At least in the short term.   In this scenario, there is no recovery in the U.S. economy, for example due to the expiration of tax relief or as a result of austerity measures or wave receivership. Although this does not change the Fed's policy, the worse the condition of the economy would certainly led to a fall in asset prices. And it is always a good sign for the dollar, because it will be considered a safe haven.In another scenario, the U.S. economy continued declining recovery, and if it did not knock down markets, the Fed was forced to retreat again partly from expansionary policies.

Euro - voltage increases again

For the euro, we must wait for the results of the German election. Another unknown is Italian and her journey, after which the post-election issues. The economic situation in France is also deteriorating, while small Slovenia may need assistance in the form of a bailout. And do not forget to Spain. Bad news from a bank here may come at any moment and social cohesion there is tense as wire. The most interesting event but will still be the ultimate consequences of the Cyprus bailout / bail in. Will direct "seizure" common denominator further restructuring of insolvent economies or is it an exception rather go on a wave of printing money? Barring any key event, so we expect that the fate of Europe, whether any, clarify month after the German elections in September.

Wild Ride yen

In the second quarter may be an abrupt movement yen due to the fact that they will sell speech (speculation) and buy facts. The weakening of the yen could stop.Discover could, worried that the steps the Bank of Japan may lead to destabilization - whether the bond market or business relationships. It may be situations where there is a growing appetite for risk department and the weakening of the yen. Then the market will find a new paradigm and could cause the yen to large oscillations, in both directions. Similarly, could shake up the yen and rising political tensions in the region, where Japan could be accused of protectionism.

Libra - down but ....

As for the pound, I expect it to term, against the euro of 0.8500 to 0.9000. I also lowered its estimates for a few pound / dollar. This reflects differences in potential central bank policies, along with stagnation as the budget deficit and the current account.

Table Forecast

25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: white 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso -border-alt: solid white .75 pt "valign = top width = 109>

1.18

25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: white 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso -border-alt: solid white .75 pt "valign = top width = 109>

95

25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: white 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75 pt "valign = top width = 131>

EUR / GBP

25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: white 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso -border-alt: solid white .75 pt "valign = top width = 109>

0.80

75pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75 pt "valign = top width = 109>

1.22

25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: white 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso -border-alt: solid white .75 pt "valign = top width = 109>

1.25

25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: white 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso -border-alt: solid white .75 pt "valign = top width = 109>

1.00

25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: white 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75 pt "valign = top width = 131>

NZD / USD

25pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: white 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso -border-alt: solid white .75 pt "valign = top width = 109>

0.64

75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: 0 cm black none; mso-border-alt-right: none black 0 cm "valign = top width = 109>

8.60

95pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; background: # dbe5f1; HEIGHT: 14pt; BORDER-TOP: # 000000; BORDER-RIGHT: white 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; mso-border-top-alt: 0 cm black none; mso-border-left-alt: 0 cm black none; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid white .75 pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid white .75 pt "valign = top width = 109>

7.60

Currency Pair

3 months

0pt 920.4pt 955.8pt 991.2pt 1026.6pt 1062.0pt 1097.4pt 1132.8pt 1168.2pt 1203.6pt 1239.0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> 6 months

12 months

EUR / USD

1.23

1.12

0pt 743.4pt 778.8pt 814.2pt 849.6pt 885.0pt 920.4pt 955.8pt 991.2pt 1026.6pt 1062.0pt 1097.4pt 1132.8pt 1168.2pt 1203.6pt 1239.0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0 1628.4pt pt "class = MsoNormal> USD / JPY

100

4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> 105

8pt 283.2pt 318.6pt 354.0pt 389.4pt 424.8pt 460.2pt 495.6pt 531.0pt 566.4pt 601.8pt 637.2pt 672.6pt 708.0pt 743.4pt 778.8pt 814.2pt 849.6pt 885.0pt 920.4pt 955.8pt 991.2pt 1026.6pt 1062.0pt 1097.4pt 1132.8 pt 1168.2pt 1203.6pt 1239.0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> EUR / JPY

117

4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> 118

6pt 885.0pt 920.4pt 955.8pt 991.2pt 1026.6pt 1062.0pt 1097.4pt 1132.8pt 1168.2pt 1203.6pt 1239.0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> 118

GBP / USD

0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> 1.48

8pt 814.2pt 849.6pt 885.0pt 920.4pt 955.8pt 991.2pt 1026.6pt 1062.0pt 1097.4pt 1132.8pt 1168.2pt 1203.6pt 1239.0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt " class = MsoNormal> 1.46

1.40

6pt 708.0pt 743.4pt 778.8pt 814.2pt 849.6pt 885.0pt 920.4pt 955.8pt 991.2pt 1026.6pt 1062.0pt 1097.4pt 1132.8pt 1168.2pt 1203.6pt 1239.0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6 pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> 0.83

0.81

EUR / CHF

1.30

0pt 743.4pt 778.8pt 814.2pt 849.6pt 885.0pt 920.4pt 955.8pt 991.2pt 1026.6pt 1062.0pt 1097.4pt 1132.8pt 1168.2pt 1203.6pt 1239.0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0 1628.4pt pt "class = MsoNormal> USD / CHF

1.06

4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> 1.16

4pt 247.8pt 283.2pt 318.6pt 354.0pt 389.4pt 424.8pt 460.2pt 495.6pt 531.0pt 566.4pt 601.8pt 637.2pt 672.6pt 708.0pt 743.4pt 778.8pt 814.2pt 849.6pt 885.0pt 920.4pt 955.8pt 991.2pt 1026.6pt 1062.0pt 1097.4 pt 1132.8pt 1168.2pt 1203.6pt 1239.0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> AUD / USD

0.98

4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> 0.92

2pt 849.6pt 885.0pt 920.4pt 955.8pt 991.2pt 1026.6pt 1062.0pt 1097.4pt 1132.8pt 1168.2pt 1203.6pt 1239.0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> 0.80

USD / CAD

0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> 1.05

8pt 814.2pt 849.6pt 885.0pt 920.4pt 955.8pt 991.2pt 1026.6pt 1062.0pt 1097.4pt 1132.8pt 1168.2pt 1203.6pt 1239.0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt " class = MsoNormal> 1.10

1.16

6pt 708.0pt 743.4pt 778.8pt 814.2pt 849.6pt 885.0pt 920.4pt 955.8pt 991.2pt 1026.6pt 1062.0pt 1097.4pt 1132.8pt 1168.2pt 1203.6pt 1239.0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6 pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> 0.77

0.72

EUR / SEK

8.80

8pt 1168.2pt 1203.6pt 1239.0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> 9.00

EUR / NOK

4pt 1132.8pt 1168.2pt 1203.6pt 1239.0pt 1274.4pt 1309.8pt 1345.2pt 1380.6pt 1416.0pt 1451.4pt 1486.8pt 1522.2pt 1557.6pt 1593.0pt 1628.4pt "class = MsoNormal> 7.40

7.50

 

John J. Hardy, FX strategist at Saxo Bank

 Globální online investiční banka

Saxo Bank je globální investiční banka specializující se na online obchodování a investice na mezinárodních finančních trzích. Saxo Bank umožňuje soukromým investorům a institucionálním klientům obchodovat s FX, CFD, cennými papíry, futures, opcemi a dalšími deriváty a poskytuje i profesionální správu portfolia a fondů díky svým online obchodním platformám oceněným řadou různých ocenění.

Více informací na: www.saxobank.cz

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