The global economy is recognized in 2013 a slight growth, the eurozone remains in recession
Mads Koefoed, chief macroeconomic strategist at Saxo Bank .
Saxo Bank expects this year a slight growth in the global economy, which should increase from last year's 3.2 percent to 3.4 percent. Eurozone this year will remain in recession when the economic activity falls by 0.3 percent.
In developed countries will continue to dominate the low growth environment. Last year, developed countries experienced growth of only 1.3 percent and the euro area fell into recession. Changing for the better is expected this year due to the fact that several countries are trying to fiscal consolidation. This is particularly the peripheral eurozone countries, but also the USA. Comparison of the major euro area countries, the UK and the USA shows that the United States placed in the reduction of public spending on the 3rd place, just behind Spain and Italy.United Kingdom, followed by France and Germany on the other hand increased public spending.
In the U.S., we expect 2014 growth of 3 percent
Public spending in the U.S. fell by 1.8 percent. Still, after last year's growth of 2.1 percent is expected in 2013, a growth rate of two per cent in 2014 even 3 percent. Last month had added 183,000 jobs and the position of U.S. households also reinforces the improving real estate market. Property prices are finally starting to overcome the amount of mortgage that the owners of the banks. GDP also help investment in housing.
Economic activity in the euro area will fall according to our estimate of 0.3 percent. Unemployment will grow throughout the year and on average more than 12 percent. The resulting economic slowdown will lead to low inflation. The economies of Italy and Spain remain weak, but most are afraid of the French economy. The French government is not able to implement reforms. Absence of treatment to the risk that the second largest economy in the euro zone stuck in a low growth for several years.
Emerging economies are gaining speed
Growth in emerging economies remains robust thanks to the responsible policy in both the budget and the currency. While fiscal consolidation remains falls on household consumption and imports, the impact would be reduced, which will help growth in emerging economies. Nevertheless, we continue to expect growth below the level of 2010 and 2011. Domestic support growth in the number of emerging economies, in our opinion, is low.
The growth of the Chinese economy returns above 8 percent. Growth in lending remains high at 15 percent, and funding remains relatively relaxed, thus ensuring that domestic demand will continue in the coming quarters to support the economy. Relatively cautious fiscal policy in addition suggests that the government has room to stimulate growth through public spending. Looking further ahead but we shall see that the situation is not so pink is not a transition from export-and investment-oriented economy, the economy driven by private consumption will not be easy and we can expect repeated decline in growth.
Saxo Bank je globální investiční banka specializující se na online obchodování a investice na mezinárodních finančních trzích. Saxo Bank umožňuje soukromým investorům a institucionálním klientům obchodovat s FX, CFD, cennými papíry, futures, opcemi a dalšími deriváty a poskytuje i profesionální správu portfolia a fondů díky svým online obchodním platformám oceněným řadou různých ocenění.
Více informací na: www.saxobank.cz
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