USD / EUR in the last few days without a significant trend
Over the weekend there were two events. Italy re-elected to the presidential post Giorgio Napolitano, who should now try to resolve the political stalemate in the country. On Friday at the same time resigned chairman of the Democratic Party Pier Bersani, which means that negotiations with the party Sylvia Berlusconi stretch further. The political situation thus remains very uncertain, and early elections in the fall are still very likely.
Conclusions of the G20 countries that have not too new. Eurozone needs quick access to Union Bank and correct malfunctions interbank market.At the same time, on the one hand necessary to make a credible fiscal consolidation plans, on the other to keep loose monetary policy to support economic growth. The statement shall therefore have a rather general znatelnějšího no impact on the financial markets.
The upcoming week will be in the euro area associated primarily with an additional series of leading indicators (INSEE French, German IFO, PMI PMI for individual euro area countries and for the whole). However, estimates show more on next fall, which should confirm the shaky outlook for the old continent. In this context, as will any interesting discussions and creating expectations on the ECB meeting, which will be held on the first Thursday of May. Although speculation on further rate cuts grow from a few central bankers was said that this step would be premature and could be ineffective.We expect rates unchanged.
Even in the United States will see the leading indicators, attention will also focus on the real estate market and the most important thing will be published on Friday, in the first estimate of GDP for Q1. The economy should grow by a decent 3.2% (qoq, annualized), mainly due to household consumption and production supplies. The growth should instead take a slightly net exports and government consumption.
In particular, due to the possible disappointment of published indicators on the European side and market expectations for monetary easing ECB should prevail rather downward pressure on the euro. On the other hand, both in the United States in recent weeks also waited several unpleasant surprises which could be repeated during the week.Pronounced weakening of the euro, or the dollar will strengthen these factors probably limited. Technical analysis for the nearest days rather shows the decline of the USD / EUR for the 1.2965 / 77
Author: Miroslav Frayer
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