Macro outlook for the 17th week - data from Europe, PMI, IFO, U.S. GDP 1Q
This week will be interesting data from Europe - first preliminary index of purchasing managers, and after German IFO business cycle index. Both are waiting very slight decrease, and the risk is more pronounced on the decline. If this risk is realized, it would mean challenging recovery in EMU and markets would likely react by increased speculation for further easing of monetary policy by the ECB, which would be particularly negative for the euro. The USA will clearly be interesting to Friday's data on GDP. Expectations're quite optimistic and is likely to be fulfilled. The problem is that in terms of market it is more important how the economy will develop in the future and outlook stemming from data published recently is not very good.So not a good indication of the GDP for Q4 of last year, the market may not particularly encouraging. May therefore be important information to leading character, this week it will be durable goods orders. There are expectations pessimistic, but in this highly volatile data comes from a sharp rise in the month before the aircraft orders. In addition, they will still posted sales of new and existing homes. They should confirm the ongoing recovery in the residential property sector.
This week will be on home ground data are scarce. More interesting are just numbers for retail sales in Poland, which may indicate whether the Polish economy has managed to find its bottom and the situation is slowly beginning to stabilize, or if we can by CB forward to one more cut.
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