Commodities have been able to recover from sales
Ole Hansen, chief commodity strategist at Saxo Bank .
Number one topic was last week a dramatic sale of gold . I would say that a similar event could happen only once in a lifetime. Substantially failed or other commodities. Along with weakening growth in China and the U.S. economy and the European recession, the question is, what will the demand for many key commodities at the time of their abundance or even rising inventories. At the end of the week, although in some sectors of the situation and prices have stabilized, but nervous trading in the coming weeks is likely to continue.This quarter is also particularly difficult for commodities, which have in recent years tried especially energy.
Most of the sectors hit by risk aversion (see table below) that has spread to other asset classes, particularly equities. DAX Index even in the middle in just a few minutes fell by 2.7 percent, and those losses have so far recovered. The hardest blow was given gold, which failed to hold support at 1,525 dollars per ounce. Traders and investors are now more than ever, differ in their short-term forecasts for the precious metal. From a technical perspective, gold could, according to some of them fall to $ 1,150 an ounce, while others predict his return to the values ??on which we used almost two years ago.
Index Dow Jones-UBS, which has already put investors billions of dollars, fell by 14 percent from the highs of last September. During April, the decline was more advanced, which was associated with poor economic data and also how the weather this year's bumper crop negatively influence the border support for key crops.
In the first quarter of this year, China's economy developed more slowly than expected. On the industrial metals, oil and hit more bad news. The price of copperWhile in the past proved to be a good barometer for the state of global growth and demand, but this is not the case in recent years as a result of too much dependence on demand from China. At the moment copper is compared to its peak in the year 2012 by more than 20 percent down, which signals the arrival of a bear market.
Natural gas on Tuesday humbled 21měsíční maximum. According to the weekly stocks data showed a lower than expected. And because this year has been colder weather than in this period usually, it happened that the first deliveries this year were lower than estimates. Total inventories are now 1.7 trillion cubic feet, nearly a third less than one year ago. In recent months, because the price of natural gasrose quickly, and he became the most prosperous key commodities. Only since the beginning of the throttle more than 30 percent.
In addition to natural gas was also successful non-cyclic commodities, especially agricultural ones. The best results recorded cocoa, who managed to set a new high for 2013. European and U.S. demand for cocoa actually began to recover in North America even cocoa processing area grew for the second month in a row. I managed to partially reduce oversupply, which until March at the price of cocoa pushed. Its toll on the current harvest, however, they can also choose from the heat and drought early in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. That should Cocoa lend further support.
All group metals fell
The five least successful commodity belonged to the group of metals. Faced strong pressure from both industrial as well as precious metals and metals of the platinum group (platinum group metals PGM). Copper on the London Metal Exchange fell below $ 7,000 per tonne, and has so behind steepest weekly fall since 2011. Harmed her especially worried about further economic growth and sales of similar metals. Hedge funds even before the latest wave of sales remained the most net short positions since 2006 and within a week of their number have undoubtedly increased. Rocked Silver-right double blow, as regards both industrial and investment metal. He fell as the relatively weakest level against gold since September 2010. One ounce of gold now equals 60 ounces of silver. At the end of 2012 while it was 50, but it was much more optimistic economic outlook.
Gold is the historically most significant two-day decline , the price dropped by $ 213, tried during the week of recovery. However, after several years of rally will persist for a while nervousness that gold may not have the worst behind. Therefore, there will be other days and weeks for this metal extremely important right now while it is a war of nerves.There are thus several questions: Will investors using exchange-traded products (ETPs) continue to download your position? This step is only acceded in February, while hedge funds so advanced it last October. Or vice versa gold will find support in the current slowdown in the world economy and increase physical purchases? They will then hedge funds to reduce their positions Short, respectively? While technical analysis speaks up about 1150 dollars per ounce, according to our aid could be directed more at 1,300 dollars. Any recovery of these values ??is faced with massive resistance to old acquaintances 1,525 dollars per ounce.
Brent is stuck at $ 100
Oil lost its power during April.Compared to the previous two years of that period came a month earlier, but the reason for the drop is the same this time too speculative traders who built an unsustainable number of long positions. Is expected that demand for oil will grow, as well as economic growth. And because the latest figures, especially those from China, suggests rather a downturn in the economy, also dropped the price of oil. On the horizon is neither any geopolitical tensions that could have impact on oil supplies. Between 2011 and 2012, however, brought the second quarter, oil prices usually boost and 2013 should be no exception. In the coming months would be seasonal demand pick up. Moreover, oil from OPEC countries are below $ 100 per barrel during the last three years received only three times, so it can not be ruled out that just by OPEC comes a verbal intervention.
On oil markets now there is a balance, but only because of OPEC, which produces beyond its goal of 30 million barrels of oil per day. Saudi Arabia managed to push oil prices below $ 100 per barrel, and from now on could aspire to have oil did not decline further. If the verbal intervention occurs, but is not successful, it could mean disruptions. And the Arabs to keep the price at $ 100, can proceed in this way for a long time. The risk premium for geopolitical tension that the oil prices for a long time připočítávala, it's almost gone. And even though no actual threats appear, it could be soon. Negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program are ongoing without results and other risks is still unstable in Syria.
And because the price of Brent crude oil derives precisely from geopolitical events, it could be in the next few weeks to discover opportunities for its growth. Now but would stabilize the price of oil was around $ 100 per barrel, even before the time close to its two-year average 111 dollars. However, this is probably not until July. Slowly approaching the second half of the year and during the summer season, we can expect increasing demand for oil from the Middle East. As usual, the higher demand for electricity and demand is expected to grow by example in Latin America.
Saxo Bank je globální investiční banka specializující se na online obchodování a investice na mezinárodních finančních trzích. Saxo Bank umožňuje soukromým investorům a institucionálním klientům obchodovat s FX, CFD, cennými papíry, futures, opcemi a dalšími deriváty a poskytuje i profesionální správu portfolia a fondů díky svým online obchodním platformám oceněným řadou různých ocenění.
Více informací na: www.saxobank.cz
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