Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  September 02, 2010 09:21:08

MS - commentary 02.09 - U.S. data calendar issue in CR


CR + Region  

O       (EN) Ministry of Finance yesterday published a calendar for emission 4Q/10 and updating the plan for 3Q/10. The plan is for the last four months of this year to issue 73 billion in T-bills and bonds for 50 billion. The current bond issue is approximately 118 billion, net issuance of the SPP and MF 20.8 billion in total this year will issue about 170 billion in bonds in 2011 and the package will be about 110 billion bill (about 20 billion more than the Ministry of Finance brought from 2009 to 2010). In the near future we do not see too much room for a rapid normalization of revenues by the end of the year, then return to 3.75. Further growth until next year due to higher rates, the overall need to fin 250mld. Even greater optimism in the market.

O        (CZ + PL) Ministry yesterday sold the five-year bonds for 7.3 billion crowns, while demand was more than double the. The average yield over the last auction fell to 2.592% 40BB. In Poland 2Y bond auction also met with good demand and sold for 4mld.Bid-cover is slightly lower (1.65 compared to 2.1 in August), the average yield fell by approx. 9bb to 4.67. Because the government has ufinancovala 77% full-year plan and offer in 2H will be rather less space and still see a slight drop in revenues.

O        (CZ)The August PMI CR confirmed that the divergence of the German economy from the rest of EMU is sent to us is still quite fast. The August number is 0.5 higher than in July, the value is only 57.3 by 0.3   May highs and far above average hist (52.4). All components show an improvement, employment has been growing for the sixth time, new orders stronger and stronger, despite the Crown (the company confirmed strong demand from home and abroad). So for now, the index does not indicate any weakening of the dynamics, but probably some time to come (through Germany, slowdown, according to a weaker euro restricts us to help him. Exports), a recession can not see it. Overall, it can still expect a decent performance in Q3 and waiting along with the revision of Q2 data (due to a stronger Germany), it indicates to the CNB inflation risk and should therefore enjoy Holman et al.

O        (PL) After a few hesitant months Polish PMI showed stronger growth in August., From 52.06 to 53.8 points, which is the most over the last 37 months.Importantly, similarly to Monday's GDP, even here, the structure confirms the strength of domestic demand, which was the main factor behind the growth of PMI (orders from abroad, the smallest since October 2009). This basically implies lower sensitivity to any slowdown in 2H EMU and therefore good economic performance. For Hungarians it was even thicker, the index fell 53.5 to 51.9 s, except for the decline in exports across the spectrum.

  World  

O        (U.S.) Yesterday's ISM index unexpectedly better than expected, added 55.5 y to 56.3 in August. Sub index for new orders, although more or less stagnant at weaker levels, production and employment, however, clearly stronger, which is important for the economy.

John Krajčová
Czech Savings Bank, Inc.

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